College Basketball Best Bets (3/1)

Cue up Michael Scott, because “OH MY GOD IT’S FINALLY HAPPENING!” We’ve officially reached March folks, the best month of the year. We are one day away from conference tournaments kicking off for the mid-major squads and inching closer to a bracket. In a little over two weeks, we will be able to dissect regions, identify potential upsets and make official predictions for who will cut down the nets in San Antonio. It’s been an up-and-down season without a doubt, but it’s been solid lately, so let’s continue riding the momentum into March Madness. 

As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially when it comes to college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small, but it adds up over the course of an entire season, especially if you’re going to be a volume shooter come the tournament, as I will be. But let’s get to it.

Last Article: 3-0 | Season (Articles): 33-27 | Season (Overall): 131-138-1

Auburn vs. Kentucky

Location: Rupp Arena | Lexington, KY
Line: Auburn -5.0 | Total: 168.5

What a year for the SEC, ehh? I know it’s not exactly a new point, but it’s worth re-emphasizing. Not only is the SEC going to be the best conference in college basketball for the first time since 2003, per KenPom efficiency metrics, but it’s on track to be the best conference ever. They are only rivaled by the 1997 ACC but otherwise are significantly ahead of any other conference for any given year. Four teams rank in the top six, and every team ranks in the top 80. South Carolina has been the worst team and they beat the ACC’s second-best team in Clemson. They only lost to Auburn by three, Florida by one, Texas A&M by four and took Mississippi State to overtime. But enough about them, let’s get to the game.

Auburn-Kentucky is yet another gauntlet in-conference matchup. For the best conference ever, Auburn is up there as one of the best teams ever with a 14-1 SEC record. Johni Broome has continued to excel as the Wooden Award front-runner. He is one of the best rebounders in all of basketball and an excellent defensive presence and overall force down low. Each of the Tigers’ role players have helped lead the most efficient offense in basketball with Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones, Tahaad Pettiford and the like allowing a dynamic offense to flow across the court. They have the fifth-highest field goal attempt rate, and with how well they take care of the ball and rebound on the offensive end, they don’t even have to have an efficient night to win and cover in this matchup. 

Kentucky is going to counter with an elite offense of its own, with speed, depth and perimeter shooting. Koby Brea is one of the best three-point shooters in the country, Lamont Butler is a defensive rock, while Andrew Carr and Amari Williams anchor the frontcourt. Despite their lanky frames, however, the Wildcats’ interior defense might be their kryptonite today. Their mid-range defense ranks 208th with their near-proximity percentage sitting at 184th. So even if the Tigers are limited from deep, I expect them to eat down low. Jaxson Robinson is also expected to miss this game, so Kentucky’s biggest strength will already be limited with shooting, not to mention the Cats are going up against a top-10 ranked perimeter defense in Auburn. 

I’ve doubted the Tigers before and it hasn’t worked out for me. So here’s to learning from past mistakes. Auburn is the better team here, and I trust the dominance the Tigers have exerted on opponents throughout the year. Don’t be afraid to lay the points. 

Prediction: Auburn 86, Kentucky 77
Best Bet: Auburn -4.5 (-114 FanDuel)

Arizona vs. Iowa State

Location: Hilton Coliseum | Ames, IA
Line: Iowa State -6.5 | Total: 151.5

I don’t buy into revenge game narratives all that much, but after a buzzer-beater forced overtime when Arizona beat Iowa State in January, I imagine the Cyclones have had their eyes on this game for a bit. Maybe that’s why they haven’t been playing as well recently. I get they haven’t been 100% healthy and fought against Houston, but the loss to a sub-100 Oklahoma State is embarrassing. They allowed the Pokes to get over 1.00 points per possession and only shot 60% from the charity stripe. 

This is where I’m most concerned for Iowa State. Its defense has taken a step back in the last month, ranking outside the top 25 since Feb. 1. The Cyclones’ offense has been even worse at 86th. Again, they should have Keshon Gilbert back tonight, but these are two teams going in opposite directions. In the same time frame, Iowa State ranks 10th in Division I with a surprisingly elite defense. The Cyclones have lost three out of the last five, but honestly it was three games that could’ve gone either way. Against Kansas State, they played hurt and went 2-for-22 from beyond the arc. Versus Houston, they played them toe-to-toe while still only shooting 21% from deep. Against BYU, the Cougars shot nearly 50% from three-point range and got a no-call go their way. 

It’s easy to pick and choose stats and lines when writing for or against any team, but simply put, I expect Arizona to keep it close, and I’m judging the more recent numbers than seasonal ones. Iowa State’s offense, even while healthy, will still struggle against a top-25 near-proximity Arizona defense that allows very few second-chance conversions. On the other side, the Wildcats rank 15th in interior offense, where Iowa State finds its biggest weakness – ranking 165th in near-proximity defense. 

Arizona will win on the glass and in transition. The Wildcats have the size advantage and should capitalize on Iowa State’s weaknesses. Don’t be afraid to sprinkle a bit on Arizona’s ML here, but officially, I’m taking the spread. 

Prediction: Arizona 75, Iowa State 74
Best Bet: Arizona +6.5 (-110 BetMGM)