College Basketball Best Bets (2/8)

Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place, and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up.

I get the Super Bowl is Sunday but what a slate we have Saturday, with 154 different games. Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding and there are some under-the-radar matchups that I highly advise watching (looking at you, UC Irvine). After starting the year rough, it’s been a great last month or so and if you only look at the picks I’ve given out in this article, it’s been nothing but successful. Let’s keep that momentum going.

Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 29-22 | Season (Overall): 101-111-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Florida at Auburn

Neville Arena | Auburn, AL
Auburn -8.5 | Total: 156.5

To give an understanding as to how good Auburn has been this season the difference between them (first) and Florida (fifth) is the same as Florida to Missouri (22nd) on KenPom. You have a top-five matchup, and this spread might get to double digits. Luckily for Florida, Walter Clayton is expected back after missing last game with an injury. He will be much needed against this Auburn defense. In the last month of play, the Tigers defense has only gotten better within the gauntlet of the SEC. But Auburn hasn’t faced an offense with the rebounding prowess of Florida. The Gators near proximity offense is elite and despite Auburn’s interior defense, the Tigers’ are not the best at limiting second-chance conversions, ranking 192nd in that area.

While Auburn hasn’t seen a team like Florida, the Gators haven’t seen a team or an offense like Auburn. The Tigers don’t turn the ball over, they score in transition and can get a bucket anywhere on the court. But the Gators counter with their perimeter defense, that’s one of the best in basketball. There’s nothing easy about scoring on Florida and Todd Golden’s squad won’t allow Auburn to get away with fouling either, as the Tigers might on the other end with the shifty frontcourt of Florida.

Auburn has been elite at home with a 6-3 ATS record, but this is an insanely high number for a top five opponent. The Tigers will limit Florida down low with a high block rate form Broome and Co. but the offensive rebounding and Florida’s perimeter defense I imagine will keep this game close and competitive.

Prediction

Auburn 82, Florida 77

Best Bet

Florida +9.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Texas Tech at Arizona

McKale Memorial Center | Tucson, AZ
Arizona -3.0 | Total: 149.5

After betting Texas Tech to make the Final Four — a bet I still advise — I’ve been locked in on the Red Raiders and it’s been nothing but excellence of late. Since Jan. 14, Tech has gone on a seven-game winning streak and is ranked as the sixth best team in basketball per Bart Torvik. Chance McMillan has been a great all-around scorer, JT Toppin has been a force down low while Elijah Hawkins in his guard duties has been a facilitating guru. This has led to an elite defense that handled Houston and almost took down Iowa State with a serious turnaround in their game since the New Year.

Arizona, meanwhile, hasn’t been too shabby either recently. After a 4-5 start, the Wildcats have gone 12-1 and rank as the ninth-best team in DI since Dec. 14. They’ve had a top-25 offense and defense in that time frame, leaning on their fast pace and interior play on ways to stellar victories.

But that one loss in their 12 wins? It was to Texas Tech. That was a 16-point game where the Red Raiders only shot 26 percent from deep. Tech absolutely suffocated Arizona defensively, and I think they just might do it again here. The Raiders’ defense has only continued to improve, and their interior defense may not limit Arizona right at the bucket but everywhere else on the court. Texas Tech is also due for some positive regression from beyond the arc. Arizona allows 37 percent of opponents’ points from deep, 35th highest in basketball. I don’t expect Tech to shoot 26 percent again considering they’ve averaged 38% from deep this season.

While Arizona is much better at home, going 7-4 ATS, this feels like a game for Texas Tech to win. They allowed six points to Arizona in the final 10 minutes during their first match and I don’t know if the Wildcats can keep up for a full 40 minutes. Feel free to sprinkle some on the ML for Grant McCasland’s squad.

Prediction

Texas Tech 75, Arizona 73

Best Bet

Texas Tech +3.0 (-110, Caesars)

UC San Diego vs. UC Irvine

Bren Events Center | Irvine, CA
UCSD -1.0 | Total: 140.5

It may not be the first game you think of when going over all Saturday’s games, but it’s time to look for early potential Giant Killers for the NCAA Tournament, and you don’t have to look farther than the Big West for a first option. UC Irvine sits atop the conference at 10-1 but UC San Diego is right behind at 9-2 with better analytical metrics and ranked significantly ahead in terms of momentum. The Anteaters have escaped with two overtime wins but they also have the advantage of rest over San Diego.

But the first time these two faced off, Irvine handled San Diego. The Tritons went 6-for-35 from deep while Irvine took care of the ball. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones – the San Diego frontcourt man who can get to the charity stripe at will – only managed six attempts at the charity stripe, while Bent Leuchten — the Irvine big man — absolutely ate down low with 23 points and 13 boards.

What this game will come down to is if Irvine can capitalize on their home-court success. The Anteaters have gone 6-1 ATS at home and are an improved perimeter shooting team at home against the 292nd 3pt defense in UCSD. I haven’t even mentioned how Russell Turner’s squad boasts a top-10 defense in college basketball. Their near-proximity defense is sixth in DI and they won’t allow any second looks. Assuming the Anteaters can take care of the ball the same way they did the first time these two squads met, they should get another win over UCSD. And be warned, whoever gets the auto-bid out the Big West this year will be a problem in the tournament.