College Basketball Best Bets (2/22)

Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we inch closer and closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place with the bracket reveal for the top 16 seeds, as we only have a few more weekends before conference tournament play begins. Many teams are jockeying for conference seeding, and there are some under-the-radar matchups that I highly recommend watching.

It may be cold, but we’re staying hot in the betting world, except last week. After starting the year rough, it’s been a great last month or so and if you only look at the picks I’ve given out in this article, it’s been nothing but successful. Let’s keep that momentum going, shall we?

Last Article: 0-3 | Season (Articles): 30-27 | Season (Overall): 114-122-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Illinois vs. Duke

Madison Square Garden | New York City
Duke -8.5 | Total: 152.5

For a game I’ve been anticipating since the season started, I would not have expected the line to get out to double digits, but it makes sense for the season Duke is having. Cooper Flagg has been everything as advertised and is frontrunner for National Player of the Year. Kon Knueppel has been Flagg’s Robin, adding 13 points, four boards and multiple assists a game with some defensive prowess to add to it. The additional freshman Khmana Maluach is one of the most efficient players in the nation with his 7-2 frame and this trio of underclassmen have gelled well with the experienced grouping of Tyrese Proctor, Sion James and Caleb Foster.

Conversely, Illinois has been a chaotic team. They play at the No. 16 pace in the league and rank 349th in Haslametrics’ consistency metric. Anything can happen here. Morez Johnson is out for the year, which seriously handicaps Brad Underwood’s team on the offensive boards, which is a clear path to stopping this Duke squad. No one has really stepped up as a serious perimeter threat but defensively, they allow the third-lowest rate of perimeter looks in the league. This should limit long rebounds and second-chance looks Duke depends on.

Illinois loves to run and gun, and while they’ve faced Tennessee, I’m not sure if they will know how to handle the Blue Devils transition defense. Only 10% of opponent looks come in transition against Jon Scheyer’s squad, the fourth lowest in the league. Illinois is also a team that depends on second-chance opportunities and getting to the charity stripe, but against the size of Duke and the absence of Morez Johnson, I don’t expect them to be able to depend on their bread and butter.

A lot of things can happen here, so while I’ll give my best bet, I do advise taking some alts. Neither team is consistent with their play and playing on a neutral court in a primetime game always allows for greater nerves and randomness. What I am confident about is that Illinois will be limited with whatever they try to do offensively. They rank outside the top-300 in perimeter shooting, they won’t have much of a transition game, and Duke’s size and rebounding will limit many second chance looks. I think this will be close, but I feel more confident about Illinois not reaching their team total.

Prediction

Duke 78, Illinois 68

Best Bet

Illinois under team total

Kentucky vs. Alabama

Coleman Coliseum | Tuscaloosa, AL
Alabama -10.0 | Total: 180.5

What a treat where we have a college basketball game with a total of 180. Per EvanMiya’s score predictors, this is the highest total of any game for the rest of the season, by six points! And it might not even be high enough! Both defenses have been miserable recently. Bama just got trounced by Mizzou, allowing a plethora of open looks and 1.39 PPP en route to a 110-98 defeat. That’s NBA numbers. Kentucky meanwhile has the 104th defensive efficiency since Feb. 1 where they’ve given up 89, 98 and 78 in their three losses.

Both teams run at a rapid pace with Alabama leading DI in pace and Kentucky not far behind with the 29^th-overall fastest possession rate. Kentucky may rank 10th in perimeter defense but Will Warren has noted how Kentucky is due for regression in that department. Even in the first matchup, this game nearly cracked 200 points with a 102-97 Alabama win. It helps when both teams shoot 38-plus percent from deep but both teams rank outside the top 345 in causing turnovers and Alabama is quite capable of converting misses and getting to the charity stripe.

The elephant in the room that I’ve buried the lede a bit on is the injuries they face. Lamont Butler, Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa have all been ruled out for this game. Butler and Robinson combined for 28 points in round one of this battle and are big losses to Kentucky’s perimeter shooting and defense.

Last time I wrote about Alabama, I thought it would be a bounceback game against Missouri. I was wrong, I will own that. But I think I just jumped the gun a bit. Kentucky ranks 349th in away-from-home play, per Haslametrics and are playing shorthanded after an incredible victory over Vanderbilt. It feels like a lot but I expect Alabama to be able to score anywhere on the court tonight while Kentucky may struggle with the pace and depth problems Nate Oats and Co. will force. Bama might make this ugly in Tuscaloosa.

Prediction

Alabama 95, Kentucky 80

Best Bet

Alabama -9.5 (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga

McCarthey Athletic Center | Spokane, WA
Gonzaga -5.5 | Total: 143.5

I can’t pass up in another good old-fashioned rivalry game, can I? For those who don’t know, these are two good teams. Gonzaga was ranked ninth in KenPom preseason and has gotten back up to 10th after a bumpy start. The Bulldogs have a great inside-out approach with Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike. Although they may lack in size and physicality, they make up for it with speed and finesse with the 15^th-fastest offensive rate in the nation. They won’t shoot a ton of threes but are effective inside the arc as they take care of the ball and have a lot of experience under Mark Few.

Saint Mary’s is the forever underdog. The Gaels consistently rank high under Randy Bennett but have only reached the Sweet 16 once during his tenure in 2010. Their slow, methodical style can lure teams to sleep, but they pound the offensive glass with nearly a 40 percent offensive rebounding percentage. Because of this, even though they aren’t supreme shooters, Saint Mary’s has the seventh-best field goal rate in the nation. So they will get a lot of shots up any given night. Defensively, they are stout on the glass and allow no freebies with only 15% of opponents shots coming in transition. This will be tough for Gonzaga. Augustus Marciulionis is a great facilitating and scoring guard while Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen anchor the frontcourt.

When these two teams competed earlier this month, they only managed a combined 120 points. But there was a lot left on the table. Gonzaga went a measly 3-of-17 from deep, shooting 17.6%. Each squad combined for 18-of-35 from the charity stripe, only 51%. That’s insane. Especially with Gonzaga ranking sixth highest in free throw shooting percentage.

Despite what was left last time, I’m seeing another under game. Both squads will limit the opponent on the offensive glass and Saint Mary’s pace simply takes away shot opportunities on both sides. The Gaels defense is quite underrated and neither team takes many perimeter shots. It might not be as low as 120 again, but these two coaches know each other so well that they can defend anything thrown at them.

Prediction

Gonzaga 70, Saint Mary’s 66

Best Bet

Under 142.5 (-110, BetMGM)