College Basketball Best Bets (2/1)

Welcome to February and another Saturday college basketball slate. We are one month closer to March. The resumes are shaping into place, and bracketologists everywhere are coming out of the woodwork as the bubble debate begins to heat up.

It’s not the most interesting slate, but it’s highlighted by Tennessee trying to get revenge against Florida, John Calipari returning to Kentucky, and what hopefully is a closer Duke-UNC rivalry game. After starting the year rough, it’s been a great last month or so. Hopefully, we will continue the heater with all the data available. Let’s get to it.

Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 27-21 | Season (Overall): 87-95-1 

Florida vs. Tennessee 

Thompson Boling Arena | Knoxville, TN 
Tennessee -4.5 | Total: 143 

It’s tough to forget what happened the last time these two faced off, so let’s start there. On Jan. 7, Tennessee played what quite possibly was the worst game of basketball I have ever seen a team play. Florida dominated Tennessee 73-43 in a game that wasn’t close. In the Volunteers’ defense, they went 4-for-29 from deep, which is tough to do even if I was out there shooting. Tennessee also only made 60% of its free throws, but still, that wouldn’t have made much of a difference. 

I should also note how Florida rebounded 43% of its misses. The 19 offensive boards were a big reason why the Gators pulled away so early, and if Tennessee can’t stop them again, it won’t matter how well they shoot from deep. Those second-chance opportunities and free throw chances will be the crux of this game. Both teams rank in the top five in opponent shooting percentage, with each in the top three at three-point defense. Neither team is expected to shoot well here. 

There’s also something to be said about momentum. The Volunteers have dropped three of their last four games, including one at home to Kentucky as a big favorite. Florida also had a week off after a dominant performance against Georgia and only two losses on their resume. Additionally, Tennessee ranks 347th in Haslametrics’ consistency metric, so I would be shocked if this game came down to one possession. Feel free to bet some alts. 

Everything points to a knock-it-out, gut-punching win for Florida. The Gators still aren’t getting enough respect. They are 14-6 ATS, with only one of their wins coming by five or fewer points. Florida should continue with its rebounding ways while taking advantage of the Vols’ aggression in getting to the charity stripe. This line might continue inflating, but give me the Gators here with some sprinkle on ML and alt-spreads. 

Prediction

Florida 70, Tennessee 66 

Best Bet

Florida +5.5 (-115 BetMGM)

North Carolina vs. Duke 

Cameron Indoor Stadium | Durham, NC 
Duke -13.5 | Total: 149 

On paper, this doesn’t seem like the most interesting game, but as someone who respects history and legacy, I am contractually obligated by the college basketball gods to preview this game. We’ve seen surprising outcomes here (looking at you, last Coach K game), so maybe the fireworks will be out tonight. Crazier things have happened. 

And Duke hasn’t exactly been dominant in recent play. They do have the longest winning streak in the nation, sure, and if you look past the most recent two games, it’s hard to find any blemishes, but the Blue Devils struggled to put N.C. State and Wake Forest away in their last two matchups. The absence of Maliq Brown might be bigger than expected, but they still have stars. Obviously there’s Cooper Flagg, but Kon Knueppel has been delightful, and Tyrese Proctor continues steady improvement. But if Duke expects to dominate, it has to find its perimeter shooting. The Blue Devils have failed to reach a 30% clip from deep in their last two matches, and one of their two losses came on a 4-for-24 outing against Kentucky. Almost 38% of their points come from deep, so they lean on their perimeter shooting more than most teams. 

While Duke has stumbled a bit (if you can say that) in their last two games, North Carolina has been downright bad. Since Jan. 16, over its last four games, UNC is 1-3 with an overtime win over Boston College. In that same time frame, they rank 97th, per Bart Torvik. It’s a small sample, sure, but if you expand it to since Jan. 1, UNC only jumps up to 47th. RJ Davis isn’t as an effective player and the rest of the pieces haven’t stepped up, with only one player shooting above 38% from deep (Ian Jackson). 

I really don’t see how UNC’s defense will keep up with Duke’s offense, especially if Jalen Washington remains out. The Tar Heels have gone 0-7 against every team ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency, with only two games coming within five points. Even if Duke isn’t shooting well, the Blue Devils should dominate the boards with their size advantage and take care of the ball, as UNC ranks outside the top 300 in defensive turnover rate. I’m also not much of a narrative-based bettor, but there’s a chance Duke hasn’t played to its ceiling of late with this game circled on their calendar. This game might get out to a 20-point lead for Duke, and I don’t expect them to let up on the gas pedal. 

Prediction

Duke 83, UNC 65 

Best Bet

Duke -13.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s 

University Credit Union Pavilion | Moraga, CA 
Gonzaga -1.5 | Total: 146.5

Saint Mary’s has this game in the bag from a momentum perspective. Since Jan. 1, the Gaels are a top-10 team, while Gonzaga ranks 22nd with some questionable losses. Shortening the sample size to its last five games, Saint Mary’s is the fifth-ranked team in the country. 

The key to taking down Saint Mary’s is to force the Gaels into foul trouble and limit their second-ranked offensive rebound rate. I’m not sure if Gonzaga is going to do much of either. Saint Mary’s only allows 15% of their opponent’s shots to come in transition, so I expect their methodical pace to get to the Bulldogs as well. Mitchell Saxen and Paulius Murauskas should dominate on the glass, and Gonzaga’s interior defense ranks outside the top 150, so if you’re looking to bet their prop overs, I support that mindset. 

My biggest worry is Saint Mary’s running out of steam late in the second half. But with its 358th-ranked pace, I’m not entirely worried about that. The Gaels’ near-proximity defense ranks 11th, where Gonzaga is expected to take 40% of its shots tonight. The Gaels’ perimeter defense is lacking, but that’s not where Mark Few’s squad prefers to take their shots, and Gonzaga’s fifth-ranked free throw shooting will be negated by the Gaels’ disciplined defense. Give me the home dog here in a game I’ll have to stay up until Sunday to watch. 

Prediction

Saint Mary’s 75, Gonzaga 71 

Best Bet

Saint Mary’s +2.5 (-120 FanDuel)