College Basketball Best Bets (1/4)

Welcome to the Saturday college basketball slate, and Happy New Year to all. After some lower-key weeks from the holidays, we are back in action with one of the best basketball slates all season. Four different ranked matchups feature this slate with plenty of other exciting games.

As we turn the page to 2025, it’s important to look at the season so far. A lot of teams have surprised and with the NIL and transfer portal era, it’s been a bit more difficult to handicap. I still have complete confidence in bouncing back and with additional data every day, handicapping only gets easier.

Last Article: 3-2 | Season (Articles): 16-17 | Season (Overall): 50-54-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Kentucky vs. Florida

Rupp Arena (Lexington)
Kentucky -2.5 | Total: 164.5

The SEC gauntlet gets going for both teams that start conference play with an incredible matchup. Florida has been one of the most impressive and surprising teams in the league with their 13-0 start. The Gators’ best win is away from home against UNC, but they’ve yet to face a top-25 KenPom team. This will be their first true test as a slight underdog. Florida has depended on their trio of guards — Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard — who have done a great job at giving and taking roles whether it’s facilitating, scoring or defense. The Gators also feature one of the best frontcourts in the nation with the second-best offensive rebound rate and a top-10 interior defense. They will run-and-gun offensively with the 10^th-fastest offensive tempo rate but then lock down defensively everywhere in the half-court.

Kentucky has also impressed in Mark Pope’s inaugural season, moving up from 22nd in the AP Poll to 10th. More impressively, they started 43rd in KenPom and have moved up to 21st. The depth and experience have been everything for Pope’s squad as they play with pace but poise, turning the ball over at the second-best rate in the country. Their three-point defense, while due for regression, has been elite and they clean up on the defensive glass while avoiding fouling.

They also limit transition offense, allowing only 18% of opponents’ field goal attempts coming in transition. The Gators love to get up and go with 33% of their total attempts coming in transition. so that battle on the run should be interesting to watch. Florida also doesn’t like to attack down low with an expected 29 percent of shots coming near the basket, six percent below the D1 average. Given Kentucky’s 206th near-proximity ranked defense, it will be interesting to see if Todd Golden decides to attack down low more where they excel when they do shoot.

This is also Florida’s second true road game all season. They haven’t been tested yet in a truly hostile environment, and Kentucky has been deadly at home, scoring over 100 points in four of their games at Rupp. The Wildcats are also the best team the Gators have faced on the defensive glass all year so despite their elite rebounding numbers, they’ve only faced one top-100-ranked team on the defensive glass.

What this game is adding up to is a close matchup that Kentucky ends up pulling away late. The opportunities for the Gators normal ways of scoring off second-chances and in transition will be limited and I don’t expect their true shooting to keep up. This will be a resume standout win for Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 80, Florida 75

Best Bet

Kentucky -2.5 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Coleman Coliseum (Tuscaloosa, AL)
Alabama -10.5 | Total: 164.5

For another undefeated team on the docket, we have the Oklahoma Sooners on the road against Alabama to kick off their SEC play. It’s always impressive to win all your games, so I don’t want to take away from Porter Moser and Co., but it has come against the 341st-ranked non-con schedule, with a neutral win over Michigan their best victory so far. The Sooners have depended on their offense so far with elite perimeter defense.

But they haven’t faced a team like Alabama yet. The Crimson Tide are the definition of run and gun, with the seventh-fastest adjusted tempo in DI play. Nate Oats takes the analytical approach with the 10th-highest rim-and-three rate, but when they’re shooting in between they have the best mid-range percentage in the country. It’ll be interesting to see what the Sooners’ defensive strategy is as they own the fourth-best perimeter defense but anything inside they struggle with.

While Oklahoma is 10-3 in shot quality, their offense is still a top-25 in the league. Their mid-range shooting is elite, and they score in transition well while getting to the charity stripe. The problem with the Sooners is that this is their first road game of the season. They’ve played neutral site games but nothing in opponent territory and Alabama has the 26th-best home-court advantage in DI basketball per KenPom. But even against higher-ranked defenses like Michigan and Arizona, Oklahoma still put up 80-plus points. In a faster-paced game against a less efficient defense, I see Oklahoma managing to keep up offensively.

Whether they can win is unlikely, but despite this high-paced and high total game I’m still in on the over. The Sooners might get sliced and diced depending on how the Crimson Tide run their game, but I expect Oklahoma to keep up. This will be a fun game to watch, and I’ll be rooting for points the entire time.

Prediction

Alabama 88, Oklahoma 80

Best Bet

Over 164.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Baylor at Iowa

Hilton Coliseum (Ames, IA)
Iowa State -8.5 | Total: 151.5

Moving from the SEC to the Big 12, we have another blockbuster despite the high spread. What stands out are Baylor’s road woes, losing both their true road games and 1-2 ATS in neutral court games. Norchad Omier has transitioned well to the Big 12, providing his elite rebounding and interior scoring. VJ Edgecombe has been impressive in his freshman campaign with four straight double-digit scoring efforts. Their problem has been the defense. Ranking 62nd in defensive efficiency, the Bears have allowed everything from deep and rank 289th in near-proximity defense.

Iowa State will also eat on the glass and get to the charity stripe as they dominate down low.

The Cyclones take care of the ball with the eighth-lowest turnover rate while forcing them at the 13th-highest clip. That’s the surprising thing about T.J. Otzelberger’s squad. Usually known for their suffocating defense, it’s actually the offense that’s been the most impressive. They have a top-75 field goal rate and rank 29th in second-chance conversion rate when they do miss.

Another note is how Baylor’s rankings are elevated by beating up on the weak. They have smashed teams like Sam Houston State and Tarleton State but also have been handled by Gonzaga and Tennessee. Evan Miya encapsulates this as Baylor has one of the worst “Opponent Adjust” rankings in DI, struggling against stronger teams while Iowa State steps up in class against improved opponents.

This is one of the easier bets I’ve made as I truly think Iowa State handles business here at home. Baylor also ranks 209th in free-throw shooting percentage and won’t get any free buckets so Iowa State has a lot of paths for victory while Baylor has few. This is a big line but give me the home favorite.

Prediction

Iowa State 85, Baylor 71

Best Bet

Iowa State -8.5 (-110, Caesars)