College Basketball Best Bets (1/25)

Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate. We are past the frigid week in most of America, and the songs of Spring sound in the distance. We’re over halfway through the season, and with the NFL dying down, the best sport in the land garners more attention.

Saturday features two of the best matchups of the season and some sneaky games as well. After starting the year rough, the clouds are parting, and the sun seems to be shining down on the valley after going 9-3 over the last two weeks of articles. Hopefully, I pull off the same magic trick today. Let’s get to it. 

Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 25-20 | Season (Overall): 78-83-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Houston vs. Kansas

Allen Fieldhouse | Lawrence, KS
Houston -2.0 | Total: 127.5

For all the defensive lovers out there, this one’s for you. The consensus total is only 127.5, and even that feels too high. This matchup features two top-five DI defenses against some inefficient offenses. Both teams love the mid-range look and get to the charity stripe at a bottom-25 league rate. That will be tough for Kansas, who goes against the best interior defense in all college hoops, as Houston limits opponents to 40% shooting from inside the arc with the best near-proximity defense in the league. Hunter Dickinson will have his work cut out for him.

Houston is in a similar boat, with KU’s mid-range defense ranking 10th and their near-proximity defense sitting at 21st. But Houston can fall back on their shooting in a more obvious way than the Jayhawks can. They shoot 40% from beyond the arc on average, with LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp (projected back from injury today) coming in above 42%. 

It was a rocky start for Houston, but they’ve hit their groove with an 11-game winning streak. Granted, as a double-digit favorite, they barely squeaked by UCF, but they also went 3-16 from deep while fouling uncharacteristically often. The Jayhawks won’t force fouls out of the major Houston players, so I expect the Cougars’ defense to control the game here. Hunter Dickinson is quite the basketball player, but Joseph Tugler has the second-best block rate among all DI players for Kelvin Sampson and actually ranks as Houston’s best player per Evan Miya’s BPR. Expanding on that, no DI player has a higher defensive BPR than Joseph Tugler. His minutes are a question mark as he’s averaged around 20 a night while playing less in Big 12 play, but his presence combined with J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis down low will be a force to reckon with where Kansas plans to do a lot of their shooting.

This game feels perfectly priced as the total is low, but Kansas is 2-16 O/U this year, so it’s only going to continue falling with their wonky offense. Still, this feels like a “first to 50”-type game where Houston will vastly slow down the pace and both squads line up well with the other. I mean, the Cougars just dismantled Utah, limiting them to 36 points! There will be long-scoring droughts in this one that might be grueling to watch but will be a massive win for whichever team comes out victorious. 

Prediction

Houston 64, Kansas 61

Best Bet

Under 127.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tennessee vs. Auburn

Neville Arena | Auburn, AL
Auburn -5.5 | Total: 141

I hate giving a full preview for a game with exceptions, but there is a lot in the air still for this matchup with both squads dealing with injuries and question marks. Of course, Auburn has been without Johni Broome over the last two weeks, arguably the most critical player in the nation. They’ve gone 2-0 without him but barely escaped Georgia with a win. Bruce Pearl seemed to hint that Broome’s status indeed was in question and they would try to see if he could give it a go as a game-time decision.

The Volunteers, meanwhile, have listed Igor Milicic and Jordan Gainey as questionable. The third and fourth leading scorers aren’t as impactful as Broome, but Milicic leads the team in rebounds per game, with each playing over 26 minutes a night. It would be quite a blow if both miss. 

Still, the way this game is priced makes me think Broome will miss and maybe one Volunteer will be out. This feels more like an eight-point spread if the best player in the nation is confirmed in, right? Who knows. What I do know is that either way, this should be quite an entertaining game. 

In my humble opinion, no team looks better than when the Tigers are firing on all cylinders. They take care of the ball, don’t make mistakes, and have a suffocating defense with the ninth-best interior opponent percentage and fourth-highest block rate. Looking at pure field goal attempt rate, they are third in the nation with the fifth-best effective field goal percentage in DI hoops.

Tennessee is no slouch either, obviously, with a 17-2 record and a top-five defensive unit as their floor. No team has done better at limiting the three-ball than Rick Barnes’ squad, holding opponents to a 26% clip from deep. For context, that would be the best defensive three-point percentage in a season since 2005, per KenPom. Still, both the Volunteers losses have come on the road and both were pretty ugly. The loss in itself to Florida is understandable, but only putting up 43 points is not. It doesn’t help going 4-of-29 from three but they also went 8-of-27 (30%) from inside the arc. They couldn’t buy a bucket. The Volunteers shot 48% from downtown against Vanderbilt and added 17 points at the charity stripe, so there’s really no excuse for them trailing by 16 at one point in the second half to a Vanderbilt team that is no pushover but still a team they should have handled.

There’s still a lot up in the air, but I’m most confident about Tennessee taking a step back on the road. The spread might bounce around, but I’m going to get specific here as there’s a chance Auburn blows them out and we have another dud offensive performance. While I expect them to keep it close, what I’m most confident in is Tennessee’s offense struggling and going under their team total.

Prediction

Auburn 71, Tennessee 64

Best Bet

Tennessee under 67.5 points (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

UConn vs. Xavier

Cintas Center | Cincinnati
Xavier -1.5 | Total: 142.5

It’s pretty odd to see a 12-8 Xavier team favored over the UConn, but it’s deserved. The Huskies rank 305th in Haslemetrics’ momentum rate, whereas Xavier ranks 91st. Dan Hurley’s squad has been struggling defensively, dropping two out of their last four games, escaping with a home win over a sub-par Butler squad. They’ve been foul-heavy and cannot defend the perimeter to save their lives, but they are due for some positive regression in that sense, as Will Warren points out. Alex Karaban and Samson Johnson have been effective down, and their offense is still top-10, but that feels like a consolation prize for the 14-5 Huskies team that’s built such high program expectations.

With Xavier losing to UConn in overtime on the road in December, I’m guessing they’ve had this game circled and highlighted since then. It finally seems like Xavier is finding their footing as the sleeper DI team they were pegged for in the preseason. They’ve won three of four with a win over Marquette and an overtime defeat to St. John’s on the road. Not bad. Zach Freemantle was also absent the last time these two teams met, and the Musketeers still went toe-to-toe in a hostile environment.

It helped that they shot over 50% from deep, but that’s exactly the kind of opportunity that will open up for them again today. UConn’s perimeter defense is bad, as a reminder, so I expect Ryan Conwell or Marcus Foster to eat, with Jerome Hunter a viable high-scoring candidate as well. Freemantle’s, Dayvion McKnight’s, and Dailyn Swain’s high offensive foul rate will be helpful as well against a UConn defense that allows a quarter of opponent points to come from the charity stripe, 13th highest in DI ball. Xavier will get their looks from deep and at the free throw line on their way to what I expect will be an effective offensive night.

Meanwhile, Sean Miller’s squad holds up defensively, limiting transition points and ranking 57th in near-proximity defense. Again, not bad. They are playing better basketball right now and have a home-court advantage. This will be a fun game to watch, and I expect the Musketeers to get revenge. 

Prediction

Xavier 76, UConn 71

Best Bet

Xavier -1.5 (-110, Caesars)