College Basketball Best Bets (1/18)

Welcome to another Saturday college basketball slate as we buckle in for a cold week ahead. We’re halfway through the season, and with the NFL dying down, the best sport in the land garners more attention. Thursday was wild, with every ranked team going down, and Saturday features four ranked-on-ranked matchups to look forward to.

After starting the year rough, the clouds are parting, and the sun seems to be shining down on the valley after going 7-2 over the last two weeks of articles. Hopefully, I pull off the same magic trick here. Let’s get to it.

Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 23-19 | Season (Overall): 72-77-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Alabama vs. Kentucky

Rupp Arena | Lexington
Kentucky -2.0 | Total: 179

It’s games like these that make me feel lucky to be alive. Two top-10 teams going toe-to-toe with a one-possession point spread and a 179-point total? Are you kidding me? This game has all the makings to be an instant classic.

Kentucky comes into this one with two straight wins over other SEC powerhouses Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The depth Kentucky had on paper preseason has proven to be the case this year, with Lamont Butler an excellent addition to the squad, Koby Brea the forever sharpshooter and Andrew Carr and Amari Williams effective interior defenders. The offense is a highlight for the Wildcats, with five players averaging double-digit scoring a night. Kerr Kriisa remains out, but the point is that Mark Pope has built an excellent program.

While Kentucky’s offense far outweighs its defensive metrics, the question of the night will be how they guard the perimeter. Alabama ranks 19th in rim-and-three rate, with a projected 48% of their attempts coming from deep, per Haslametrics. Kentucky has been stellar guarding the perimeter, limiting opponents to 28 percent, the seventh-best number in DI, per KenPom. Alabama has also struggled to find its shooting rhythm, with Aden Holloway the only player to shoot above 36% from beyond the arc.

For the Crimson Tide to score, it must be in transition and the mid-range. It might be tough to run on Kentucky, with only 18% of opponent shot attempts coming in transition against the Wildcats, the 289th lowest. If Nate Oats wants to lean away from the analytically sound game, Kentucky ranks 247th in defending the mid-range look, while the Bama offense ranks fifth on the shooting side.

Usually, I’m all about opportunity, and there will be plenty Saturday. Neither team forces many turnovers, and each squad will get its fair share of second-chance opportunities and free throws. But Alabama did not look great against Ole Miss, shooting 5-of-20 from deep with 21 turnovers. Even if they can get back on track offensively, they are still dealing with the nation’s second-best offense on their home turf, where they’re undefeated. I don’t expect that to change Saturday.

Prediction

Kentucky 90, Alabama 83

Best Bet

Kentucky -2.0 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Purdue vs. Oregon

Knight Arena | Eugene, Oregon
Oregon -2.5 | Total: 147.5

For another ranked-on-ranked matchup, we have Purdue traveling out to the Pacific Northwest to take on Oregon. The Boilermakers are riding a six-game winning streak, while the Ducks have transitioned well into the Big Ten with a 15-2 record. While those two losses did come in conference, they have handled their two SEC foes and are back from a difficult two-game winning road trip against Penn State and Ohio State.

When analyzing Oregon, nothing jumps off the page. Among the major KenPom metrics, besides pure offensive and defensive efficiency, the only stat where the Ducks rank in the top 50 is defensive field goal rate. At the same time, they are purely green across the board with defensive rebounding as their only true weakness. Against Alabama, Oregon only shot 29% from deep, but they limited turnovers and capitalized on their free throw rate in the win over the Crimson Tide. Each of Oregon’s last three wins has come by seven combined points, so they find ways to win, but only by the hair on their duck chins.

Purdue, meanwhile, has maintained their level of play with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith as some of the best players in DI, and Fletcher Loyer, who is pure money from deep. On the road, the Boilermakers are a different team, ranking 348th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric. The three top-50 teams they’ve faced on the road have all been losses by a significant margin, including a double-digit defeat to Penn State. But Oregon is 3-6 ATS at home, so it’s not exactly like there is a strong home-court advantage for the Ducks here. What will win out?

I point to how Oregon depends on getting to the charity stripe in their wins. Their victory over Texas A&M was their second-highest free throw rate of any game, and two of their losses feature two of their three lowest free throw rates of any game. Against Purdue, they won’t have that luxury as the Boilermakers rank 31st at foul rate. Expecting Purdue to win on the road out west is a bit too much for me to back, so instead I’m going to back the under as I am confident both offenses will struggle.

Prediction

Oregon 71, Purdue 70

Best Bet

Under 148.5 (-115, ESPNBet)

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

Humphrey Coliseum | Starkville, MS
Mississippi State -6.0 | Total: 146

Finally, another ranked matchup is between the two SEC teams from The Magnolia State. Mississippi State has been solid over the last month, ranking as the 11th-best team in basketball since December 17th, per Bart Torvik. But if you look more closely, nothing jumps off the page, and they are coming off a pair of losses to Kentucky and Auburn, the latter just being a downright embarrassing game. As they return home licking their wounds, Chris Jans has his work cut out for him.

For the Bulldogs, four different starters are consistent contributors with over a 20% usage rate. The frontcourt of Cameron Matthews, KeShawn Murphy and RJ Melendez is the engine that runs this team, while Josh Hubbard mans the controls at point. The depth might also be a little concerning, with Riley Kugel and Kanye Clary expected to miss the game. Still, the Bulldogs are a team that takes care of the ball, battles on the offensive glass, and ranks 15th in near-proximity scoring percentage.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, is coming off an incredible resume-boosting win at the Coleman Coliseum over Alabama, so they must be riding high when coming into the Humphrey Coliseum. Four starters average double-digits, and Mikeal Brown-Jones is expected back for this game after missing the last three. The momentum is on the Rebels side as they have the third-best offensive turnover rate in the nation and 10th-best defensively. Their defense is suffocating, with the 19th-best opponent perimeter percentage and a high block rate.

I really don’t understand how this line is what it is. Ole Miss will get plenty of perimeter looks where the likes of Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray can rain from. Ole Miss should also win the overall field goal attempt battle by winning the turnover margin comfortably. Brown-Jones is a solid depth piece with a 24 percent usage rate when he’s on the floor, and there isn’t a clear path for Mississippi State’s offense to find easy buckets here. I’d sprinkle some ML bets on the underdog here, but the clear play is Ole Miss ATS.