College Basketball Best Bets (1/11)

Welcome to the second Saturday college basketball slate of the new year. We are in the full swing of conference play, which means some fantastic matchups. This slate features some prime teams in potential trap spots on the road like Iowa State, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. A lot of squads have surprised and with the NIL and transfer portal era, it’s been a bit more difficult to handicap.

I still have complete confidence in bouncing back and with additional data every day, handicapping only gets easier.

Last Article: 5-1 | Season (Articles): 21-18 | Season (Overall): 64-67-1

College Basketball Best Bets

Iowa State vs. Texas Tech

United Supermarkets Arena | Lubbock, TX
Iowa State +1.5 | Total: 147

What an incredible game we are treated to on ESPN as Iowa State takes on Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Cyclones have been incredible, with their only loss coming to a second-half collapse to Auburn. Otherwise, they’ve dominated in almost every game they’ve played. Their offense has been the most surprising part, with elite ball control, a top-10 near-proximity shooting percentage, and the best transition scoring off steals in the league, per Haslametrics.

Texas Tech has started the year 11-3, but their best win is on the road against BYU. They are 4-2 in Quad III games with their sub-50-ranked defense holding them back. Offensively they are elite from across the court with Darrion Williams an elite playmaker with Elijah Hawkins and Chance McMillan elite from deep.

Considering the only top-50 defense Texas Tech has faced is a loss to Texas A&M, I’m not sure The Red Raiders are ready for Iowa State. They also turned the ball over 18 times and Iowa State is a much feistier team. Home court is king with college basketball, but Iowa State has handled their business on the road and away from home this year. I may be too over the top on Iowa State this year, but I would not be surprised if the Cyclones close as favorites.

Prediction

Iowa State 78, Texas Tech 72

Best Bet

Iowa State +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Alabama vs. Texas A&M

Reed Arena | College Station, TXAlabama -3.5 | Total: 159.5

For another road game with a lot of implications, Alabama takes on Texas A&M in College Station. Both squads are set up well with a 13-2 record, and while the Crimson Tide have had a tougher road, the Aggies are more than capable of taking down Bama here.

Texas A&M is currently riding a nine-game winning streak, with wins over Purdue, Texas and Oklahoma. It’s in large part thanks to their number-one-ranked offensive rebound rate. Henry Coleman is one of the best rebounders in the nation while Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps man the frontcourt. Their interior defense ranks 18^th, and they are dominant at home, 7-1 ATS.

But Alabama has one of the most elite offenses in the league. They run at an incredible pace and are a high-ranked rim and three-rate squad. Defensively, they won’t force turnovers, but they limit opponents on the perimeter and line up well against the Aggies offense, which only shoots 31% from deep and don’t do much in transition.

Arguably the most important note is that the Aggies rank ninth in defensive second-chance conversion percentage. So even if the Aggies continue their dominance on the offensive boards, Bama should be able to limit their conversion rate.

Given how Bama lines up defensively and heading into enemy territory, I’m going to go in on the under. Texas A&M should control the pace of play but with their limitation on the glass, I am comfortable going under despite Alabama’s play style.

Prediction

Alabama 77, Texas A&M 74

Best Bet

Under 159.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Kansas at Cincinnati

Fifth Third Arena | Cincinnati
Kansas -1.5 | Total: 135.5

I couldn’t possibly cover only the SEC, could I? It’s not exactly the over/under of Bama-A&M, but it’s another close spread that should lead to an exciting matchup in Cincy. The Bearcats have been in a bit of a tailspin recently, losing each of their last three games. None of them was particularly great either. Kansas State is not a tournament team, Arizona was at home, and they got the doors blown off them against Baylor. Wes Miller’s squad is in desperate need of a turnaround.

Kansas hasn’t exactly had the best season, but the Jayhawks’ win against Duke does shine on their resume, and they’ve comfortably handled business in their last two games. Against Cincinnati I expect them to do the same. The Jayhawks are one of the best mid-range shooting teams in the nation where they take 37% of their shots, 10% higher than the DI average. This is Cincinnati’s main weak point defensively. On the other side of the ball, KU will be the best defensive rebound team Cincy has faced all season, limiting any second-chance looks. Dillon Mitchell has been awesome offensively and defensively for the Bearcats, but the Jayhawks’ interior defense might be too much for the Texas transfer.

The cherry on top is Cincinnati’s free-throw shooting. With only a 63% conversion rate, if this game is close in the end, Kansas will be in the position to claw back. There won’t be much free-throw shooting from either team during the game as neither team gets to the charity stripe much, and I simply don’t trust the Bearcats 80^th-ranked KenPom offense to get it done against a top-five defense.