Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021-22 college basketball season is finally here, and the opening night slate is loaded with games, including the annual Champions Classic. Below are my analysis and favorite bets for the college basketball opening night Champions Classic games.
Duke vs. Kentucky
(Line: Duke -1, DraftKings Sportsbook)
When was the last time we saw both Duke and Kentucky missed the tournament? You have to go all the way back to the 1970s to find a bracket that doesn’t include at least one of these blue bloods (that’s insane). Last season, lightning struck twice and both programs had their worst seasons in a very long time keeping them both out of the NCAA Tournament. Blame it on COVID-19, lack of summer practice, inability to leave their “bubbles” and build proper team chemistry – the bottom line is last year was an anomaly.
Bounceback years for both programs are inevitable, as Duke and Kentucky are again loaded with talent and find themselves ranked inside of the preseason AP Top 10. Duke is highlighted by a mix of returning talent and highly rated freshmen including the sensational and soon-to-be household name Paolo Banchero. On the flip side, Kentucky hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in three top experienced veterans in Sahvir Wheeler, Kellan Grady and Oscar Tshiebwe to go along with some core returnees and blue-chip freshmen. Both squads will have completely different looks and feel to them and what this game will come down to is which team will have the better chemistry to start the year, especially on the defensive end.
I expect this game to be played at a high tempo as both teams will look to get out in transition and avoid the halfcourt. Duke and Kentucky both have the firepower and will be able to make plays on the offensive end, but after watching both of their exhibition games Duke looks way more connected to start the year. Historically, Mike Krzyzewski typically has Duke playing much better and their rotations figured out earlier in the season compared to John Calipari, who typically has Kentucky playing their best basketball later in the year. Although I have Kentucky ranked higher in my power rankings and think they’ll ultimately be the better team down the road, Duke should have the advantage here on opening night and their early chemistry should lead to more defensive stops and the victory.
The Pick: Duke -1
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Michigan State vs. Kansas
(Line: Kansas -5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 2020-21 season was full of abnormalities, including Michigan State surprisingly finding itself on the bubble all year, ultimately losing in the play-in game and finishing the season with its worst ranking ever in the KenPom era (64th). The COVID-19 season will always be known as the year the blue bloods fell, and while Duke and Kentucky look to bounce back this current season, I’m not quite sure it will be so easy in East Lansing.
Sparty loses its best player and the heart and soul of the team, Aaron Henry. Replacements are scarce, highlighted by Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker and five-star freshman sharpshooter Max Christie, who should lead the team in scoring. Michigan State is going to have to rely on their young core to grow and develop quickly as they have a tall task on opening night against an experienced Kansas squad. The Jayhawks return their entire roster from a No. 3-seeded team minus defensive stopper and leader Marcus Garrett. The loss of Garrett should be eased by the three impact transfers Bill Self brought in, with the spot light around dynamo point guard Remy Martin. After watching their preseason exhibition, Kansas does still seem to have some kinks to work out with their rotation and dealing with the suspension of starting forward Jalen Wilson due to a DUI charge. But this group is still full of veteran players who know how to win.
We’ve seen Tom Izzo’s tendency especially earlier in the season to expand and experiment with his rotations (sometimes 12-13 players deep) which at certain times leads to strange lineups and bad chemistry. Although Kansas seems to be in a little bit of turmoil at the moment, they still should have enough firepower and continuity to handle this young Spartans team with relative ease, and I like backing them even with the points.
The Pick: Kansas -5
