Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It is one of my favorite events of the NCAA College Basketball Season.
Saturday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will provide college basketball fans with a glimpse into their mind, by providing their current top 16 seeds in March Madness. While this will certainly change, the Selection Committee will reveal who the top four seeds would be in each specific region, if the tournament started this Saturday. I always try to match the exact top 16 seeds, coming very close each of the past two seasons.
Here is my projection of how the 2023 seeding committee will place the top four seeds in each region on Saturday’s NCAA Bracket Preview Show.
(All statistics from WarrenNolan.com)
Predicting the Top 16 Seeds in the 2023 NCAA Tournament
The No. 1 Seeds
Alabama
Record: 22-4
SOS: 8
NC SOS: 9
Q1 Record: 7-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 13-4
I give the slightest of edges to Alabama over Kansas for the No. 1 overall seed. Even with the loss at Tennessee Wednesday, the Crimson Tide are second in both the NET and KenPom, with the nation’s second-best interior defense (42% 2P allowed). Haven’t lost two games in a row all season, and that 71-65 win at Houston was one of the signature victories of the season.
Kansas
Record: 21-5
SOS: 1
NC SOS: 17
Q1 Record: 12-5
Q1 & Q2 Record: 16-5
A strong case can be made that the Jayhawks should be the overall No. 1 seed, with three more Quad I wins than any other team in the country. Kansas also brings the top SOS and is tied with Baylor and Texas for the Big 12 lead. A three-game losing streak and lack of a signature NC win, puts the Jayhawks slightly behind Alabama.
Purdue
Record: 23-4
SOS: 24
NC SOS: 106
Q1 Record: 9-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 13-4
The Boilermakers have lost three of their last four games, but they were the clear-cut No.1 team in college basketball for most of the season. Purdue still boasts nine Quad I wins, something only Kansas and Texas can match. They are two games clear of Northwestern in the Big 10, and still earned impressive NC wins over Marquette, Gonzaga, and Duke. Finally, all of their losses register as Quad I defeats Purdue is a perfect 14-0 against Quad II-IV opponents.
Tennessee
Record: 20-6
SOS: 43
NC SOS: 44
Q1 Record: 6-2
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-6
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has repeatedly shown allegiance to Quad I victories, which put the Volunteers over Houston for the final No. 1 spot. Houston ranks first in the NET and KenPom, but Tennessee has registered some of the best wins in college basketball this season. The Volunteers defeated Kansas and Alabama (two No. 1 seeds), and Texas (a clear No. 2 seed). They have two more Quad I victories than Houston and are 11-0 against Quad III and IV opponents. It’s a fascinating debate, but I think the top defensive team in the nation grabs the last No. 1 seed.
The No. 2 Seeds
Houston
Record: 24-2
SOS: 92
NC SOS: 65
Q1 Record: 4-1
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-1
The pivotal question for the Cougars? Will No. 1 rankings in the NET and KenPom offset a brutal Quad III home loss to Temple? I vote “no,” especially with a 92 SOS and 65 NC SOS. The Cougars are a superb defensive team, but their best wins are St. Mary’s (neutral) and at Virginia, neither of which are Top 8 teams in the projected bracket. Going by past history, the Cougars will get bumped down to the 2-seed line.
Texas
Record: 20-6
SOS: 9
NC SOS: 118
Q1 Record: 9-6
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-6
Despite the turmoil surrounding Chris Beard in December, Texas has an impressive NCAA Tournament resume. The Longhorns played 15 Quad I games, tied for second-most of any team. The committee always values head-to-head victories when comparing teams for the same seed line, which gives Texas the slight edge over Baylor. I have concerns about the Longhorns’ sustainability in the tournament, but residing in a tie for first place in the toughest conference in college basketball places them as a solid 2-seed.
Baylor
Record: 20-6
SOS: 5
NC SOS: 42
Q1 Record: 9-6
Q1 & Q2 Record:13-6
Baylor is the hottest team in college basketball, with victories in 10 of their past 11 games. The Bears have an elite SOS with no losses outside of Quad I. You can actually make a case they deserve to be ahead of Houston, but I side with the Cougars based on NET/KenPom rankings. Since the Bears lost to Texas, they head to the West with a vulnerable 1-seed in Tennessee.
Arizona
Record: 23-4
SOS: 62
NC SOS: 54
Q1 Record: 6-2
Q1 & Q2 Record: 12-3
Arizona earned an impressive home win over Tennessee in December, but still sits behind UCLA in the Pac-12 standings. Their 6-2 Quad I record is notable, but so is a 74-61 home loss to Washington State. Barring a major upset, the Wildcats are locked into a 2-seed when the tournament actually begins.
The No. 3 Seeds
UCLA
Record: 22-4
SOS: 52
NC SOS: 95
Q1 Record: 4-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-4
The Bruins rank fourth in the NET and third in KenPom, but lack a real “standout” victory. UCLA blitzed Maryland, 87-60, on the road in December. That will look much better after the Terrapins upset of Purdue Thursday night. The Bruins SOS numbers are average, but all four of their losses are of the Quad I variety, earning them the first 3-seed.
Iowa State
Record: 17-8
SOS: 6
NC SOS: 105
Q1 Record: 8-7
Q1 & Q2 Record:10-8
For most of the season, Iowa State was playing like a 2-seed or better. The Hawkeyes were 13-2 and a perfect 4-0 in the Big 12 before a valiant 62-60 loss at Kansas. Since then, Iowa State has battled injuries and inconsistent play, which includes blowing a 23-point second-half lead at Texas Tech. However, the Cyclones still have eight Quad I wins (fifth-most) among 15 Quad I games. Without the home loss to Oklahoma State, they are probably still a 2-seed.
Kansas State
Record: 19-7
SOS: 17
NC SOS: 301
Q1 Record: 6-6
Q1 & Q2 Record:9-7
The Wildcats reside as a strong 3-seed with wins over Texas, Baylor and Kansas. However, losses in four of their last five games have Kansas State trending in the wrong direction. They have a clear 10-0 record against Quadrant III and IV opponents, but polarizing SOS numbers when you examine the nonconference ranking. Big wins matter, and Kansas State certainly has a ton.
Connecticut
Record: 19-7
SOS: 28
NC SOS: 70
Q1 Record: 6-6
Q1 & Q2 Record: 8-6
There has been so much volatility among the top 25 teams, that Connecticut has worked itself into the 3-seed line despite losing five of six games in early January. The Huskies boast six Quad I wins in 12 chances, including an 82-67 neutral-court win over Alabama. Their only stumble was a home loss to St. John’s, but a top-10 ranking in both KenPom and the NET have the Huskies as a projected top-12 seed.
The No. 4 Seeds
Virginia
Record: 20-4
SOS: 54
NC SOS: 24
Q1 Record: 4-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-4
Tony Bennett’s squad is tied for the ACC lead with surprising Pittsburgh and have won 10 of their last 11 games. Virginia’s resume is solid, not spectacular, with only an 86-79 November victory over Baylor as a signature victory. They rank top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, making UVA a dangerous March opponent for any team in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Marquette
Record: 21-6
SOS: 47
NC SOS: 142
Q1 Record: 5-5
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-6
Shaka Smart has done a masterful job in his second season with Marquette. The Golden Eagles lead the Big East by two full games over Creighton, Xavier and Providence. They boast the nation’s most efficient 2P offense, and rank inside the Top 20 in defensive turnover percentage. Five Quad I wins including Baylor, Connecticut, Creighton and Xavier, place Marquette solidly inside our top 16 seeds.
Xavier
Record: 19-7
SOS: 22
NC SOS: 163
Q1 Record: 5-5
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-6
Xavier would be much higher if not for a critical injury to Zach Freemantle, who has missed the Musketeers last four games with a foot injury. Xavier has gone 2-2 in those matchups, but still have to overcome a head-scratching loss at DePaul in January. Xavier swept Connecticut, but fell short in three nonconference chances against Gonzaga, Duke and Indiana.
Indiana
Record: 18-8
SOS: 14
NC SOS: 102
Q1 Record: 5-7
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-8
The Hoosiers round out the top 16 seeds, giving us our second Big Ten team along with Purdue. Indiana beat Xavier earlier in the season but struggled mightily with six losses in nine games at the end of the calendar year. The two-point loss to Northwestern pushed the Hoosiers into a three-way tie for third place in the Big 10, but solid two-way metrics and the presence of Trayce Jackson-Davis make the Hoosiers a tough out regardless of opponent.
