Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With college basketball’s tournament season now in high gear, we are running out of time to put in our favorite NCAA Tournament futures bets. These odds will change after the major conference tournaments start next week and will drastically change once the bracket is revealed Sunday.
Here are my favorite NCAA futures that still have value as the calendar has turned to March.
(All adds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Top NCAA Tournament Futures
Creighton Bluejays
(+3000)
These are fantastic odds for a team that was ranked inside the preseason top 10. Their 19-11 record is misleading, as the Bluejays went 0-3 in games without 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner.
History has told us to look for team’s that rank inside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Creighton makes both criteria, ranking 28th and a surprising 12th, respectively. While they don’t force turnovers (353rd nationally), they certainly make their free throws (78.7% against Big East opponents). If Creighton gets hot and wins the Big East Tournament, this number will drop quickly. Now is the chance to grab Creighton, a team that has all the pieces to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Indiana Hoosiers
(+3000)
After Jalen Hood-Schifino’s masterful performance at Purdue (35 points) Saturday, I am buying the Hoosiers as a legitimate Final Four contender. Head coach Mike Woodson always has Indiana prepared on the defensive end, and this year is no exception. The Hoosiers rank 50th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow opponents to shoot just 46.3% from inside the arc.
However, Indiana has taken great strides on the offensive end, shooting 37.8% from 3P range, Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.8 BPG) has all the tools to carry a team to the Final Four, similar to Danny Manning with 6-seeded Kansas in 1988. The development of Hood-Schifino, along with the return of guard Xavier Johnson (broken foot), has the Hoosiers as a great value at +3000.
Miami Hurricanes
(+4000)
I believe in Jim Larranaga.
Miami is just one year removed from a magical run to the Elite Eight, which included an upset over No. 7 seed USC and No. 2 seed Auburn. The criticism of the Hurricanes is their diminutive size, lacking a key player measuring over 6-foot-7. However, they overcame that same size deficiency last season, holding 7-foot-1 Auburn center Walker Kessler to a season-low two points in that second-round upset.
Guards win in March, and Miami features three fantastic perimeter scorers in Isaiah Wong (16.2 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG) and Nijel Pack (13.2 PPG). The Hurricanes rank first in the ACC in effective field goal percentage and 3P percentage. Miami is also able to battle on the interior because of the intense offensive rebounding of forward Norchad Omier, who has averaged four offensive rebounds per game throughout his collegiate career.
Experience, dominant guard play and a proven NCAA Tournament coach make Miami one of my favorite current futures.
TCU Horned Frogs
(+3000)
Don’t be fooled by their 9-8 record in the Big 12, the Horned Frogs are dangerous. Six of their 10 losses on the season occurred when leading-scorer Mike Miles Jr. was injured. TCU is a veteran team that took No. 1 Arizona to overtime in last year’s Round of 32. Head coach Jaime Dixon has the luxury of bringing almost everyone back from that game, entering the season with the third-most returning minutes in the country.
TCU struggles from beyond the arc, shooting just 29.4% as a team. However, they rank first against Big 12 opponents in 2P percentage efficiency (54%) and are 16th in the nation in overall adjusted defensive efficiency.
When at full health this season, the Horned Frogs tallied wins over Iowa, Providence, at Baylor, Texas, and at Kansas by 23 points. With all the success of the Big 12 this season, TCU will go undervalued in the market because of higher profiler conference teams such as Kansas, Texas and Baylor. Take advantage of my favorite overall future, the TCU Horned Frogs at +3000.
