Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Many say that the Big 12 is the best college basketball conference in the country due to its overall competitiveness from top to bottom. This year I’d say the Big Ten can certainly challenge that crown. The best part, though, is that we get to watch all the giants of the Big Ten duke it out one last time. So, without further ado, let’s dive into this year’s most anticipated conference tournament.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
The Wobbly Giant
Purdue Boilermakers (+220)
This Purdue Boilermakers team is built around the dominant frontcourt of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. The two big men have unique skillsets and are close to unstoppable down on the low block. This duo led the Boilermakers to the top of the rankings for the majority of the season. However, the talent does not stop there, as point guard Jaden Ivey can do it all for his team.
While their talent may be overwhelming on the offensive end of the court, the Boilermakers stumbled down the stretch, which is why their odds aren’t overwhelming. Purdue is the favorite here, but there is a clear argument about why they should not be. Purdue’s defense let them down on multiple occasions this season and is ranked 101st in adjusted defensive efficiency heading into tournament play. History tells us that is a bad sign as there has not been a national title team whose adjusted efficiency ranks totaled more than 50. That does not bode well for their outlook in this highly competitive conference tournament.
Ride the Hot Hawkeyes?
Iowa Hawkeyes (+370)
If you are looking for a team heading into a conference tournament with a full head of steam, Iowa is your team. They caught fire the last two weeks as they closed the season, winning five of their last six games with their high-powered offense looking better than ever.
Speaking of offense, the Hawkeyes were the No. 1 team in the Big 10 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, and that is because Fran McCaffery has put together a perfect combination of tempo and execution.
Iowa is the 19th-fastest offense in the nation and the fastest offense in the Big 10 by far. Their strategy is simple, push the pace and create as many opportunities as possible. But, of course, it also helps when you have one of the best scorers in the county to help carry it out. This season, Keegan Murray has been nearly unstoppable as he is averaging 23.3 points a game on 55% shooting.
While their offense gets all the attention, their defense was not too bad in conference play either. They finished fifth in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and were No. 1 in turnover percentage.
The Hawkeyes seem to have everything going their way at the right time.
The Actual Favorite
Illinois Fighting Illini (+370)
Illinois was able to capitalize on Purdue’s scuffling and clinch a share of the regular season Big 10 title with Wisconsin. Still, since they defeated the Badgers in their only meeting this season, it gave them the No. 1 seed, which is well deserved.
Illinois is the best team in this conference. They are sound in every area. On offense, they have perhaps the most dominant force in college basketball in Kofi Cockburn. Cockburn is the modern-day version of Shaq, as his 7-foot, 285-pound frame can’t be contained. He is a walking double-double, averaging 21 points and over 10 rebounds per game this season.
And did I mention a quartet of sharpshooting guards surrounds him? Alfonso Plummer, Andre Curbelo, Trent Frazier and Jacob Grandison are all threats to knock down shots from anywhere on the court.
However, for all their offensive firepower, the Fighting Illini can get it done on defense as well. They were second in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and first in effective field goal percentage allowed. For my money, they’re one of the best teams in the country and the best team in the Big 10.
Are They the Real Deal?
Wisconsin Badgers (+800)
The meteoric rise of Johnny Davis has catapulted the Wisconsin Badgers into a place not many believed they would be prior to the season. The Badgers have since captured a share of the Big 10 title and taken down a slew of quality opponents along the way.
Sophomore guard Johnny Davis is the engine of this team, and he has been churning out buckets all year long. He averages 20 points and eight rebounds per game but has become a household name by having his best performances when it matters the most.
For all the attention Davis brings to this Wisconsin team, their numbers create questions about the longevity of their run. Wisconsin’s offense was not particularly great in conference play. They were 12th in effective field goal percentage and last in three-point percentage.
Apart from Davis, the only other area the Badgers were consistent in is on defense. They finished third in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in three-point percentage allowed.
In all, their regular-season run may have been magical, but I’m skeptical of this team being able to win three games with no rest. That also appears to be reflected in their odds.
The Best of the Rest
- Ohio State +1100: The Buckeyes made headlines early in the year when they were the first to knock off a vaunted Duke team, but as the season went on, their struggles defensively and lack of a second scoring option behind EJ Liddell became apparent. Ohio State doesn’t have enough to make a run.
- Michigan +1100: Michigan was a highly regarded team entering the season as they had surrounded Hunter Dickinson with a competent trio of guards. However, their defense was non-existent for the first third of the schedule. Then, the losses piled up, which set them back, but they showed signs of life down the stretch as they earned victories over Purdue and Ohio State. Unfortunately, like their archrivals, they lack the defense to maintain success in this tournament.
- Michigan State +2000: It feels wrong to have Tom Izzo and the Spartans this low, but Sparty went through a downward spiral down the stretch as they wound up winning only three of their last 10 games. However, I’m not counting Sparty out here as the magic of Tom Izzo seems to kick in around now every year, and Michigan State has the metrics and the talent to surprise everyone. They are the longshot in this conference if you’re looking for one.
- Indiana +2500: The Hoosiers are another program that looked very promising early on. They shined in nonconference play picking up wins over St. Johns and Notre Dame. Indiana has one thing to their credit: being the best defensive team in the conference, but their issues lie when in possession as they lack another option outside of Trayce Jackson-Davis.
