Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Colorado St. (-13.5), Oregon (ML) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +133
Leg 1: New Mexico at Colorado St. (-13.5)
Just 10 days ago, the Rams were long shots to make the NCAA Tournament. The team’s COVID-19 shutdown combined with upward performances from ancillary bubble schools placed it into a gray area. However, after back-to-back crushings of wingless Air Force, the Rams are plowing ahead on securing an at-large berth. The profile, currently showcasing zero bad losses and a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, is strong and Committee attractive. CSU, though, can’t afford a misstep, especially against an inferior Lobos squad. Since Feb. 1, New Mexico, in terms of efficiency data, is locked in the dungeon of the Mountain West. Over that stretch, it’s surrendered 1.026 points per possession while scoring a horrendous 0.884 points per possession. Soft on the glass and below average pressing the arc, banger David Roddy and the Rams’ slew of sharpshooters should operate almost uninhibitedly. Keep in mind, Colorado St., as a collective, has tallied over 37% from three, 57% from two and 78% from the free-throw line. Similar to Fresno St., San Jose St. and Air Force before it, squads on par with New Mexico per KenPom, the Lobos are sure to get waxed.
Leg 2: UCLA at Oregon (ML)
Whether it’s the balanced play, highlighter-yellow uniforms or deep brown forest adorning the court inside Knight Arena, the Ducks have a distinct home court advantage. “Pedestrian” best summarizes the Bruins’ recent performance level. Over their last seven games they rank seventh in total efficiency. Mediocre across all categories, they’ve been exploited most on moneyballs, conceding an absurd 42.6%. Chris Duarte, LJ Figueroa and Eugene Omoruyi burn the nets from outside, each topping 36%. UCLA has torched the twine at a Pac-12 leading 38.8% pace from three, meaning Oregon, too, will have to extend and defend, but the Ducks’ knack for coaxing turnovers and flushing dunks in transition should push them over the top. On the victory stand in eight of its last nine games, OU, with the Pac-12 regular season title on the line, should get one step closer to hanging a banner in the rafters. Pop a gummy, listen to Bill Walton wax poetically about the Cascades and watch your bankroll swell.
Season record: 27-33
Sign up for Tipico Sportsbook now!
- Straight cash, no turnover required
- Proprietary odds, daily boosts, and promos
- Lightning-fast app, easy withdrawal
