Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Xavier (-3.5), Utah (-3.5) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +122
Leg 1: Butler vs. Xavier (-3.5)
Back against the wall. Xavier, the very last team projected in my Bracket Big Board field, has zero margin for error. With only one Quad 1 win to their name and a 2-5 road/neutral record, the Muskies have to pile up meaningful victories, and immediately. A loss to the Bulldogs would permanently knock them out of the NCAA Tournament field. To stave off that possibility, Travis Steele’s bunch must attack the tin. Butler, in its past seven contests, has surrendered a staggering 55.3% inside the arc. The loss of Nate Johnson stings, but Paul Scruggs and Zach Freemantle are effective off-the-bounce scorers who should gash the Bulldogs’ soft interior. On the year, the X-Men slot at No. 30 nationally in two-point percentage offense. If Xavier blasts the glass, challenges shots along the perimeter and steps up at the free-throw line (67.3% as a team), it will stay afloat, at least for now.
Leg 2: Washington vs. Utah (-3.5)
In the Bill Walton Bong Rip Special, the Utes are the appropriate play. Forget Huskies, Washington should change its nickname to the chihuahuas. They’re fearful, shaky and fit perfectly in any handbag. Completely discombobulated on offense, they’ve totaled a 255th-best 0.966 points per possession over their last eight games. Defensively, Mike Hopkins’ zone has tightened somewhat, but the glaring offensive flaws continue to tax this team. Rebounding, too, is an irreversible and plaguing issue. Utah seven-footer Branden Carlson, who went for 18 points and five boards in the last matchup against the Huskies, should wreck the interior. The Utes have performed at a middling level for much of the Pac-12 season, but converting at a 54.3% clip inside the arc and 36.7% output outside, they have enough offensive oomph to eliminate UW. Washington and Utah split in the regular season. The third time, expect Larry K’s kids to own the charm.
Season record: 31-35
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