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Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Tulsa +18.5, Boise St. -11.5 (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +122
Leg 1: Tulsa (+18.5) at Houston
It may not garner the attention it rightfully deserves, but the Houston Cougars are a top-10 squad whether viewed through the lens of popularity polls or advanced metric standings. Despite his controversial past — some of us have never forgotten the illegal phone calls — Kelvin Sampson is a phenomenal tactician, one of the best defensive coaches currently in the college game. His Cougs are exemplary. They rank atop the AAC in four different D categories, including points per possession allowed (0.875), effective field-goal percentage (41.8%), two-point percentage (40.8%) and turnovers forced (23.0% of opponent possessions). Tireless on the offensive glass (39.3% OR%) and prolific from three (35.3% of points), Quentin Grimes and Co. can bounce opponents in variable ways. Tulsa, which undercut Houston 65-64 in late December, is UH’s only schedule misstep. The Golden Hurricane’s erratic execution offensively is a glaring imperfection, but their dauntless defense always keeps them within arm’s reach. Only Wichita St. and South Carolina defeated them by double figures. Houston has a decisive rebounding edge, but in what will surely be a half-court centered clash, Frank Haith’s bunch can keep it close with a handful of made threes and free-throw conversions, the precise formula it executed in the prior matchup.
Leg 2: Fresno St. at Boise St. (-11.5)
Fading Boise is on par with taking domestic policy advice from the MyPillow guy, an unwise decision. Hiding out in the often-overlooked Mountain West, the Broncos are a legitimate March disruptor. Leon Rice’s crew features length, athleticism and considerable scoring prowess. In conference action, they’ve converted an absurd 1.227 points per possession, 59.4% inside the arc, 37.2% outside it and 79.2% at the charity stripe. The Broncos’ uptempo preference typically exhausts the opposition, leaving nothing but a massive deficit in their wake. Fresno St., No. 294 in adjusted tempo nationally, will attempt to apply the brakes, but its leaky defense is destined to lead to uncontested buckets. The Bulldogs rank outside the top-250 in three-point and two-point percentage defense. Boise, superb on the glass and dogged on defense (0.895 points per possession allowed in MWC), are an unattractive matchup for a school fresh off back-to-back drubbings at the hands of a lackluster Nevada team. Derrick Alston and Friends should roll. If not, then I, like a fossilized Psittacosaurus recently discovered in China, am a “perfect butthole.”
Season record: 9-13
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