Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Texas (ML), Ohio St. (-3.5) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +146
Leg 1: Texas Tech at Texas (ML)
In a matchup Patrick Mahomes and Vince Young would surely throw a few greenbacks on (OK, Mahomes is staking the entire game), the latter, poised to emerge victorious, could wind up paying off a few debts. Common in the Chris Beard era, Tech, though overrun with slashing wings, is an advanced analytics darling. The Red Raiders’ brand of positionless basketball fuels data-hungry computer algorithms with swaying metrics. Ceaseless pressure defense, a Beard hallmark, is the lifeblood of this team. They force a turnover on 26.7% of opponent possessions, continuously crash the offensive glass and allow a mere 0.885 point per possession, the fifth-best mark in the country. Jericho Sims and Kai Jones’ length, however, is a matchup concern. The duo’s rebounding ability and disruption around the basket is capable of neutralizing second chance opportunities. The ‘Horns’ equally asphyxiating defense has surrendered just 0.879 points per possession. More advantageous, long bombers Courtney Ramey, Andrew Jones and Matt Coleman are in position to push UT over the top. Uncharacteristically, Tech has yielded 36.2% along the perimeter in Big 12 action. Tally it up and the Fightin’ McConaugheys are in excellent shape to defend the Erwin Center in what should be fisticuffs to the finish.
Leg 2: Northwestern at Ohio St. (-3.5)
Northwestern is the McRib of the Big Ten. On the surface, it may boast a delectable exterior profile, but it’s true ingredients would repulse even those with the most insatiable appetite. After racing out to an eye-opening 3-0 start in league play, including a 71-70 takedown of Ohio State, they’ve crashed into a guardrail, losing convincingly to Iowa (15 points), Michigan (19) and Illinois (25). Giving up a mind-blowing 1.211 points per possession during their downward turn, the Wildcats are soul searching. Boo Buie, who scored only two points during the streak, has to rediscover his shot in order for Northwestern to compete. Good luck. The Buckeyes clearly have revenge on the mind. To exact it, they must assert themselves inside, an area they typically thrive. E.J. Liddell and Justice Sueing combined net 60.3% inside the arc. Throw in Ohio St.’s top ranked perimeter defense (30.1% allowed in B1G), shots Northwestern is highly reliant on, and a double-digit win becomes a distinct reality. An impeccable 6-0 at home this season, Chris Holtman’s club should land a devastating counterpunch.
Season record: 5-10
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