MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Virginia -4.5, Alabama -4.5 (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +131
Leg 1: Virginia (-4.5) at NC State
Unbudging in their sloth-paced ways, the Cavs’ preference is a rock fight. The slowest team in the country in adjusted tempo terms (No. 357/357), they coil around opponents and squeeze. If you don’t race to the opposite end and allow Tony Bennett’s pack-line defense to set, expect an excruciating 24-second experience. In ACC action, UVA has surrendered a mere 0.965 points per possession, a conference low. Unbeknownst to most, the Cavs are a sensational offensive team. Don’t let its pedestrian pace fool you. They rank No. 1 or No. 2 in league play in eight different offensive categories, including points per possession (1.146), three-point percentage (40.7%) and two-point percentage (50.6%). The polished games of seven-footer Jay Huff, Sam Hauser and Trey Murphy are rather remarkable. NC State, the second-fastest team in the ACC, will try to speed up UVA. Even if successful, its dreadful defensive execution, especially along the arc (38.2% 3PT% D in ACC), places it in a very disadvantageous position. Thomas Allen and Braxton Beverly will have to be lights out to keep it competitive.
Leg 2: LSU at Alabama (-4.5)
Whether on the quiz bowl or basketball team, LSU redefines mental incompetence. As witnessed in mind-numbing mistakes tallied late in a crippling home loss to Texas Tech last weekend, the Tigers’ synapses fire only infrequently. Their self-inflicted wounds and sketchy defensive rotations (No. 144 nationally in D efficiency) explain why they’ve dropped three of their last four. Will Wade’s club can fill up the cup. Javonte Smart and Darius Days each shoot over 41% from downtown. Cameron Thomas, meanwhile, can be hard to handle inside. He often draws contact and cuts opponents at the free-throw line (89.3%). ‘Bama, riding the aurora borealis not long ago, crashed down to earth last week in Norman. Blown open triples and missed layups over the final couple minutes drove coffin nails. Nate “Quicker” Oats, however, still boasts a Final Four caliber squad. His D-and-3 formula usually works seamlessly within the Tide’s up-tempo attack. John Petty and Pals have converted on an obscene 41.2% of their three-point attempts while yielding a SEC-low 0.901 points per possession. LSU, which also relishes a brisk pace, will attempt to run with ‘Bama, an erroneous move. Combine that with the Tigers’ porous rebounding and defensive insufficiencies and the Tide most definitely should roll.
Season record: 14-21
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