NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Alabama/Arkansas (OVER 153.5), Florida St. (-8.5) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +172
Leg 1: Alabama at Arkansas (OVER 153.5)
Forget elephants or wild boars, this game features a pair of cheetahs. Both Alabama and Arkansas rank top-30 in adjusted tempo nationally and are comfortable exchanging fire in shootout games that track well into the 80s. The first matchup, a 90-59 drubbing levied by the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, is unlikely to be replicated. Arkansas, which has notched 1.108 points per possession over its past five contests, totaled an uncharacteristic 0.76 points per possession, shooting just 4-for-17 from three. Jalen Tate, JD Notae and Justin Smith will probably not total another uneventful 20 total points. The Razorbacks have scored at least 74 points in seven of their past eight games. On top of that, Alabama’s any-given-night radioactivity is well documented. Yes, the Tide are an unyielding defense, but they’re often Human Torches from beyond the arc (39.4 3PT% in SEC play). Crunch the basic numbers and the conclusion drawn is the over at the above reduced total hits.
Leg 2: Florida St. (-8.5) at Miami
Disruptive length. Supreme athleticism. bull’s-eye three-point precision. Under Leonard Hamilton, who I swear is a vampire due to his youthful appearance at 72 years young, that’s Florida St.’s formula for success. A buffet of goodness this month, the Seminoles are rolling on both ends of the floor. Over their past three games, they’ve scored a ridiculous 1.269 points per possession while surrendering a mere 0.971 points per possession. Additionally, over the entirety of the ACC slate they’re numero uno in three-point shooting, tallying 42.3%. MJ Walker and Anthony Polite can seriously fill it up. The ‘Noles, too, have a massive interior advantage. Scottie Barnes, Malik Osborne, Raiquan Gray and Balsa Koprivica should flex around the basket against a Hurricanes squad No. 8 in defensive rebounding percentage and No. 11 in two-point percentage D in ACC action. The ‘Canes, 2-6 ATS on standard closing lines over their last eight, are completely outmatched whether on paper or visually. Totaling a ghastly 0.935 points per possession in league play, they will have to morph into a full-blown Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale to keep it under 10.
Column record: 25-31
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