MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Iowa (-8.5), Baylor (-2.5) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +151
Leg 1: Michigan St. at Iowa (-8.5)
Fran McCaffrey, borderline despondent after Iowa’s loss in a pivotal matchup between upper-echelon Big Ten foes, answered reporters in terse tones. Under the surface, Mt. Fran was undoubtedly bubbling, one negative exchange away from a full-blown volcanic eruption. Displeased with how his Hawkeyes performed in consecutive losses, the head coach is sure to motivate his men against a swordless Spartans team mortally wounded from two straight losses of their own. No suture could bind together the exposed wounds. It’s more than a COVID-19 hangover. Turnovers (19.0% TO% offense in B1G), shoddy shooting (0.916 pts/poss scored) and mediocre interior defense (50.9% 2PT% D) continue to plague Tom Izzo’s bunch. When at its best, Michigan St. drives the lane, entices whistles and cashes in frequently on freebies. However, Iowa, No. 21 nationally in FTA/FGA, rarely hacks. Determined to right recent wrongs, the Hawkeyes are sure to unleash a barrage of buckets. If Aaron Henry and Joey Hauser don’t fire on all cylinders, a massacre could occur. Despite their recent struggles, Luka Garza and Co. rank No. 2 in D-1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, netting 1.245 points per possession. Looking to avenge recent defeats, they will treat MSU as though it were a scout team.
Leg 2: Baylor (-2.5) at Texas
Godzilla vs. King Kong. Among titans, Baylor vs. Texas rivals it. The matchup is not only unequivocally a Game of the Year candidate in the Big 12, it’s also in the running on the national stage. Shaka Smart, who missed two games due to COVID-19, is expected to return to the huddle. His reinstatement is critical as the ‘Horns may need to pull out all the stops to compete against merciless Baylor. Simply put, the Bears ransack defenses as though they were a two-door sedan packed with snacks. Voracious and ultra-efficient on offense, they sniff out exploitable paths, driving, penetrating and often scoring with ease. Their kick-out and knock-down game is equally, if not moreso, effective. Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler each shoot 44%-plus from three. Exceptional on the offensive glass (38.6 OR%) and unrelenting on defense (0.871 pts/poss allowed) they are a clear national champ frontrunner. Texas has the necessary length to compete on the glass, but its defense lagged against Texas Tech and Oklahoma, which both resulted in close losses. To spring the upset, they must match Baylor swish-for-swish along the arc and quickly cut off driving lanes. Good luck.
Season record: 14-20
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