MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Purdue -2.5, Arkansas ML (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +142
Leg 1: Michigan St. at Purdue (-2.5)
Foamy keg. Terrible music. Sausage fest. The Sparty Party, unusually, is a lame one. Barring an absolute miracle turnaround, Tom Izzo’s club won’t make the NCAA Tournament this season, it’s first absence since 1997. Recently beaten to a bloody pulp by Rutgers and Iowa, Michigan St. is simply uncharacteristically soft in multiple categories. Since returning from a coronavirus-induced siesta, they’ve ranked second-to-last in the conference in overall effectiveness. During that six-game stretch, they’ve averaged a miserable 0.964 points per possession, converting on a wretched 41.2% of two-point shots. The Spartans’ defense has performed more than adequately surrendering 0.910 points per possession over that span, but its inability putting balls through the cylinders has greatly handicapped them. Purdue hasn’t flicked the wrist with much accuracy from three this month (24.6 3PT%), but its second-chance putbacks (31.8 OR% in B1G) and unyielding D (0.944 pts/poss allowed) should lead it to another added W. Bottom line, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey will be too menacing around the basket for Sparty to compete.
Leg 2: Florida at Arkansas (ML)
For teams not named Michigan, the post-COVID pause is a hangover no amount of Pedialyte can cure. Most have come out of the enforced hiatus overwhelmingly lethargic. Weakened legs. Reduced cardio. Underperformance. The jury is very much out on how Florida will look in its return, but betting against the Gators to operate sluggishly, particularly in the first half, is a sound wager. On paper, both teams are evenly matched, as though it seems. According to KenPom.com, they’re separated by just three ranks in overall output (Arkansas 25th, Florida 28th). Place the slide under a microscope, however, and advantages come into view. The Hogs’ ability to control the glass, negating UF’s second chance opportunities, score at the line (76.4 FT%), defend the interior (37.2 2PT% D last three games) and force turnovers (21.4 TO% in SEC) could have them running wild. Given Arkansas’ flexibility along the perimeter — they’ve conceded 35.3% in SEC action — Tre Mann, Noah Locke and Tyree Appleby could log success. In the end, however, the impacts of the prolonged layoff could bury the Gators early.
Season record: 21-27
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