MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Loyola-Chicago (-4.5), Texas Tech (-3.5) (Tipico)
Odds: +133
Leg 1: Loyola-Chicago (-4.5) at Missouri St.
Shades of 2018, a year when normalcy existed – in-person dining, unobstructed travel, attending sporting events. That’s what this Ramblers team is starting to exhibit. Recall two years ago, Porter Moser’s bunch was the Cinderella story of March. As the No. 11 seed, they wound an improbable course to the Final Four, leaving a sea of red-slashed brackets in their wake. On paper, this version is every bit as good. Currently No. 16 overall in KenPom, they’re not just beating opponents, they’re repeatedly kicking them in their unresponsive state. Setting the pace in offensive (1.140 points per possession scored) and defensive (0.927 allowed) efficiency in the Missouri Valley, they are supremely balanced. Postman Cameron Krutwig scores practically undeterred inside (60.5 2PT%) while Braden Norris (37.3 3PT%) and Lucas Williamson (35.0%) unleash from outside. Deep and experienced, they will be a tough out come tourney time. Missouri St. must quickly reanimate off the mat after the Ramblers’ 72-46 body-slamming doled out Sunday. Totaling an embarrassing 0.69 points per possession, the Bears must rediscover their long-range stroke. The rematch is sure to be more competitive, but another 15-plus point win is most likely for the MVC giants.
Leg 2: Oklahoma at Texas Tech (-3.5)
There are straight-up winners and then there are legendary spread coverers. Tech closed out LSU on a 12-0 run over the game’s final minute to not only secure the victory but also an improbable ticket cash at -3.5. Whether you describe it as an epic collapse or stunning rally, heartbeats raced for a wring-it-out sweat. Typical of recent Chris Beard-coached Red Raider teams, this season’s version features its fair share of lengthy wings, assertive finishers and staunch defenders. They snag plentiful second-chance opportunities (35.2 OR%), force several turnovers (25.0 TO% D) and only rarely inflict self-cutting wounds (16.0 TO% off.). Most remarkable is Mac McClung’s determined will to win. His ability to sink shots in high-pressure situations (See the Texas game) is rather uncanny. Oklahoma, which squared off against Kansas, at Texas and Alabama, emerged from the gauntlet unscathed, even when shorthanded. Its mixture of oxygen-depriving D (0.969 pts/poss allowed in Big 12) and sharp outside shooting (43 made threes last five) is a formula for success. Tech must challenge the perimeter, but if it can push into the paint, draw fouls, convert at the line and entice mistakes like it did in the first matchup (16 TOs in a 69-67 W in Norman), they should win backers a few Loonies in Lubbock. Keep in mind, OU starters Austin Reaves and Alondes Williams remain out due to COVID-19.
Season record: 13-20
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