NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Kansas ML, Illinois -4 (DraftKings)
Odds: +123
Leg 1: Texas at Kansas (ML)
For the Longhorns, it’s been 13 days since the last time they took the court. Quite the holiday/COVID-forced siesta for Shaka Smart to magically grow more hair (Yes, I’m extremely envious.) and for his team to accumulate rust. Immediately jumping back into the Big 12 pool, the clash with Kansas is an uphill battle. The Jayhawks have a distinct interior advantage. As a collective, they generate a second-chance opportunity on 36.3% of their possessions. Bevo, No. 166 in defensive rebounding percentage, must seal off the glass to spring the upset. Additionally, KU’s ability to knock down open and contested threes — Ocha Agbaji, Christian Braun and Marcus Garrett each net at least 41% beyond the arc — only raises the defensive stakes. UT’s perimeter reliance (41.9% of its shots come from 3) will be tested against a Bill Self defense that has surrendered a mere 29.4% from distance. In what should be a hotly contested game from start to finish, Kansas, which nets 72.7% at the line, scores the victory with late free throws.
Leg 2: Purdue at Illinois (-4)
Kofi Cockbun, 7 feet, 285 pounds of unfiltered brawn, versus Travion Williams, 6-foot-10 and brimming with craftiness, will captivate all who tune in. Their head-to-head pain battle may steal the headline, but other factors will ultimately determine who covers. Purdue must keep Illinois out of transition to compete. Ayo Dosunmu is arguably college basketball’s most lethal penetrator and finisher. The Boilers, often plagued by turnovers, coughing it up 18.4% of the time in conference action, must reduce the slop. Equally vital, it’s imperative they limit Illinois’ drive and kick game. Fail in that endeavor and the Illini, who net a ridiculous 42.6% from three, should give Purdue’s lackluster perimeter defense fits (No. 9 3PT% D in B1G). Toss in PU’s rather unpromising offensive performance in league play (No. 9 in offensive efficiency) and Illinois’ dominance at home (31.8 average margin of victory), and a potential double-digit loss comes into focus.
Season record: 1-3
