NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
There is no other tournament like it. The World’s Most Famous Arena will once again play host to the Big East Conference Tournament as the conference’s best battle it out for a shot at a national championship. If the regular season was any indication, we are in for a wild series of games over the next few days. With that said, let’s dive in and find out who really has a shot at claiming Big East bragging rights.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
The Favorite
Villanova Wildcats (+150)
If you have followed college basketball or even just the NCAA Tournament, you know of Villanova and just how good they are. During his tenure, Jay Wright turned the Wildcats into a Big East dynasty. However, this year, the conference was no cakewalk as the Wildcats ultimately finished second in the standings.
The Wildcats are the favorites for the tournament and should be despite finishing behind the Providence Friars in the regular season. I’m not going to discredit what Ed Cooley and the Friars accomplished this season, but the numbers show just how lucky they were throughout, and their luck is bound to run out in March. The Wildcats were first in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their well-rounded team is bolstered by an All-Conference backcourt of Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore.
Lastly, if the numbers are not enough let’s just factor in the motivation. Villanova needs to re-establish themselves as Providence seemingly stole their thunder, despite the Wildcats winning both of their meetings.
From a betting aspect, Villanova is as safe as you can get. Bart Torvik has them cutting down the nets over 40% of the time.
The Real Contender
UConn Huskies (+330)
I emphasized “real” in this section just to reiterate my point about Providence. The Huskies are the clear-cut second-best team in this conference and have all the tools to knock off Villanova. They finished the regular season No. 2 in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Not only were they solid on both ends of the floor in conference play, but they were also elite on the glass. The Huskies were the number one offensive rebounding team in Big East and that is all due to one man, Adam Sanogo. The All-Conference big man had the No. 42 offensive rebounding rate in the nation. Sanogo proved to be a dominant factor against every conference opponent and could be the difference-maker if they meet Villanova down the stretch.
However, I cannot wrap up UConn without highlighting RJ Cole. The senior point guard is the heart and soul of this team and has the ability to light it up from all over the court. A tournament like this is made for a player of his caliber, and if he could be Kemba Walker-esque, the Huskies will find themselves in the finals.
The Longshots
Marquette Golden Eagles (+700)
Now I know these are certainly not the longest of odds for a “longshot,” but Marquette did finish sixth in the conference standings. However, if you’re looking for a team with the highest ceiling entering this tournament, you’ve found them.
Even though their record may not show it, the Golden Eagles played very well against their conference foes this season. They were fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play. Digging even deeper, The Golden Eagles were dynamite offensively as they were first in effective field goal percentage and two-point percentage. They were also not bad from behind the arc as they were second in the conference in three-point percentage.
The Golden Eagles are not only good on paper but have the resume to back it up. They swept the season series against the Villanova and picked up huge non-conference wins against the likes of Illinois and West Virginia.
Shaka Smart continues to prove his coaching caliber by the results he got from the Golden Eagles this season, but it also helps when you have the duo of Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell. Marquette certainly has what it takes to make a run.
Creighton Blue Jays (+1000)
Greg McDermott’s team has one quality that will not go astray in a tournament setting and that is a tough defense. The Blue Jays were number one in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed.
Their offense may be lagging behind, but that did not stop the Blue Jays from collecting wins over Villanova and UConn this season. Their defense will allow them to hang around against any opponent; the only question mark is whether they can make enough shots to string together some upsets.
