Best March Madness Bets Today (March 29)

The Elite 8 has arrived! Here are the best March Madness bets today for Saturday, March 29, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

Here are FTN’s best CBB bets for today. To see more picks from our model, click here. New here? Sign up with the promo code MARCH20 to get 20% off.

March Madness Best Bets Today (March 29, 2025)

Florida -6.5 vs Texas Tech

-115, DraftKings

Florida enters the Elite Eight as the No. 4 team in FTN’s power ratings, and they’ve lived up to that billing—covering in 13 of their last 16 games and rolling through the tournament behind elite two-way play. They rank 4th in offensive rating (127.5) and 8th in defensive FG% nationally, holding opponents to just 27% from three. Walter Clayton Jr. continues to lead the way, averaging 19.7 points per game in the tournament while shooting 45% from deep and 85% from the line.

Texas Tech is a quality team, but their offensive rating (122.7, 8th in FTN’s model) drops off against top-tier defenses, and their pace (69.6) plays right into Florida’s ability to control tempo. The Gators are top 10 in total rebounding and have a clear edge on the glass—an area where Texas Tech ranks just 115th nationally. With Florida’s high-powered attack, FTN gives them a 65.3% chance to win the region, and a 19.1% chance to win it all—both higher than any team left on their side of the bracket. Lay the 6.5.

Pick: Florida -6.5

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Alabama +7 vs Duke

-115, Caesars

Alabama is getting 7 points against Duke in the Elite Eight, and that number feels too generous given how well the Crimson Tide are playing. They’ve won 7 of their last 8, including a 113-point explosion vs. BYU in the Sweet 16, and they rank 3rd in the nation in offensive rating per FTN’s model. Mark Sears (19.0 PPG) continues to lead the way, while Aden Holloway has added shooting punch (2.6 made threes per game over his last 10). This is one of the oldest, deepest teams left in the field—and they’ve caught fire from beyond the arc, breaking tournament records with their perimeter shooting.

Duke is elite, led by projected No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg and one of the most talented freshman classes in the country. They have the clear edge in size and athleticism, but Alabama’s offensive tempo and three-point barrage can neutralize that. The Crimson Tide are averaging over 90 points per game and shooting 51% over their last 10, and they’ve gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games. Duke has been rolling, but Alabama’s shot-making, pace, and veteran presence give them a real chance to win outright—and +7 is too much to pass up in what should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle.

Pick: Alabama +7

Bonus Prop Bet: Mark Sears Over 20.5 Points

-110, Caesars

Mark Sears is coming off one of the best shooting performances in NCAA Tournament history — 34 points and 10 made threes in Alabama’s 113-88 Sweet 16 win over BYU. It wasn’t just a hot night, it was a return to form. After shooting 14% from three over a six-game stretch, Sears has now hit 10+ points in 14 straight and 22+ in four of his last five tournament games.

He’s averaging 22.7 PPG in March Madness, playing nearly 30 minutes a night, and Alabama’s offense is built to let him cook. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in pace and just set a tournament record with 25 made threes — they’re going to let it fly again against Duke.

Duke’s size and athleticism are real, but their defense can be stretched by guards who can pull up from deep or shoot off movement. Sears is Alabama’s engine and will be heavily involved from the opening tip. With the total sitting above 170 and Sears back in rhythm, Over 20.5 looks like the right side.

Pick: Mark Sears Over 20.5 Points

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