Best March Madness Bets Today (March 28)

Here are the best March Madness bets today for Friday, March 28, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

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March Madness Best Bets Today (March 28, 2025)

Sweet 16 Pick: Tennessee -4.5 vs. Kentucky

-108, FanDuel

Tennessee enters the Sweet 16 as a 4.5-point favorite over Kentucky, and despite dropping both regular-season matchups, this is a strong bounce-back spot for the Vols.

Kentucky is dealing with injuries and enters with one of the weakest defenses left in the tournament — ranking outside the top 300 in opponent scoring and rebounding. Tennessee’s physicality and elite defensive metrics (top-15 in field goal percentage allowed) should create major problems for a Wildcats team that relies heavily on perimeter scoring.

Rick Barnes’ squad has been dominant at neutral sites (7-1) and owns key matchup edges in rebounding, turnovers, and assist rate. Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier give Tennessee the backcourt stability to handle Kentucky’s pressure, and the Vols’ interior size should expose Kentucky’s defensive gaps.

Tennessee’s losses to Kentucky were both close, and it’s tough to beat a high-level team three times. Look for the No. 2 seed to make the right adjustments and advance.

Pick: Tennessee -4.5

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Sweet 16 Prop Bet: Tahaad Pettiford Over 11.5 Points (-125)

Auburn freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford is stepping up at the right time, averaging 19.5 points in the NCAA Tournament and playing significantly more minutes than he did down the stretch of the regular season. He logged 32 and 28 minutes in Auburn’s first two tournament games, a clear bump from his season average of just 22.6.

Pettiford’s increased role has come with efficient scoring — he’s shooting over 50% from the field in March and is second on the team in shot volume during the postseason. Now he gets a favorable matchup against a Michigan defense that ranks outside the top 200 in turnovers forced and has struggled to contain opposing guards all season.

FTN’s Walter Waddell is also backing this prop, and with Auburn favored by 8.5 and expected to control the pace, there’s a strong case for Pettiford to clear this number again.

Pick: Tahaad Pettiford over 11.5 points (-125)

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