Best March Madness Bets Today (March 27)

Here are the best March Madness bets today for Thursday, March 27, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

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March Madness Best Bets Today (March 27, 2025)

Alabama -4.5 vs. BYU

-120, FanDuel

Alabama enters the Sweet 16 as a 4.5-point favorite over BYU, and our FTN model sees enough of an edge to back the Crimson Tide to cover. We project a 91.6 to 86.5 win in a matchup between two of the most explosive offenses in the country. It’s a small gap on paper, but Alabama’s scoring depth and tempo give them the edge in a game likely to be played in the 90s. The Tide lead the nation in points per game and have topped 80 in 18 of their last 19 games. BYU hasn’t faced an offense quite like this—one that plays at the fastest tempo in the country and thrives in transition.

Mark Sears is the best player on the floor and the key to Alabama’s chances. He’s averaging 18.6 points and five assists, and his ability to break down defenders and create from deep or in the lane sets the tone for everything Alabama does offensively. Grant Nelson also looked healthy and engaged in the opening two rounds, adding mobility and shot creation to the frontcourt. The FTN model continues to show value fading defenses that give up open threes and second-chance points—two areas where BYU has struggled.

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Arizona +9.5 vs Duke

-110, Caesars

The second pick we’re targeting is Arizona +9.5 against Duke. The Blue Devils have been one of the most consistent teams in the country, entering the Sweet 16 with a 33-3 record and the top overall ranking in FTN’s power ratings. But Arizona is no pushover. The Wildcats come in at No. 10 overall and bring an elite combination of pace, rebounding, and veteran shot-making. They rank 14th nationally in total rebounds per game and eighth in defensive rebounding rate. Duke is elite defensively, but they haven’t faced many teams that can match Arizona’s physicality while also pushing the tempo.

Caleb Love has a history of rising to the occasion against Duke, and he’s in the middle of one of the best stretches of his career. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 19.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists while shooting over 50 percent from both the field and from three. Arizona has also covered in four of its last six games as an underdog and is playing some of its most connected basketball of the season. Duke hasn’t seen a top-10 opponent since December, and Arizona has the right mix of experience, toughness, and tempo to keep this game close. You can find more Sweet 16 trends, picks, and live reactions inside the FTN Discord all week.

For more data-driven breakdowns, in-game betting opportunities, and live analysis during every tournament game, join the conversation in the FTN Discord. It’s where we’re tracking everything in real time.