Best March Madness Bets Today (March 23)

Here are the best March Madness bets today for Sunday, March 23, 2025. FTN is home to the tools, research, models, data, and experts you need to become a smarter sports bettor.

Here are FTN’s best CBB bets for today. To see more picks from our model, click here.

March Madness Best Bets Today (March 23, 2025)

New Mexico +7.5 vs. Michigan State

-105, Caesars

New Mexico +7.5 projects as one of the stronger value spots on Sunday’s slate, with the FTN model showing a 1.97% edge on the spread and a 53.2% cover probability. Despite the 10 vs. 2 seed disparity, the matchup metrics suggest a much tighter game than the market implies.

The Lobos bring a well-balanced attack, ranking top-60 nationally in both scoring (75.9 PPG) and field goal percentage (45.6%). They’re also dominant on the glass—top-20 in total rebounds and 5th in defensive rebounding—giving them a real edge over a Michigan State team that sits just 75th in offensive rebounds and 122nd in scoring. Nelly Junior Joseph (11.1 RPG) has been a force inside, while Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) gives them elite creation at the point of attack.

Michigan State’s defensive reputation isn’t undeserved, but their offense has been unreliable. The Spartans rank outside the top 190 in FG% and are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country (336th in 3P%). Over their last six games, they’ve allowed 70+ points five times—including 79 to Illinois and 74 to Oregon—and have struggled to separate from quality opponents.

On the other side, New Mexico’s defense is quietly elite. They rank 31st in opponent field goal percentage and 3rd in opponent free throw percentage, and they’ve held six straight opponents under 73 points. This group plays fast, rebounds, defends, and has a true closer in Dent.

The market may be anchoring too heavily on seeding and name value here. New Mexico has the size, physicality, and two-way balance to hang with Michigan State, and the FTN model backs it up. At +7.5, this is a strong play.

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Arizona -3.5 vs Oregon

-115, FanDuel

Arizona -3.5 is the preferred side in Sunday night’s second-round battle with Oregon. While the Ducks have won 9 of their last 10, they’re stepping up in class here against a high-powered, physical Arizona team that’s built to exploit their weaknesses.

The Wildcats rank 14th nationally in scoring (87.3 PPG), 29th in field goal percentage (50.0%), and 22nd in total rebounds per game. They’ve scored 80+ in eight of their last 10, and their offensive depth is a problem—Jaden Bradley (46.5%), Trey Townsend (50.5%), Henri Veesaar (60.4%), and Tobe Awaka (64.0%) all shoot efficiently, and Caleb Love leads the team with 16.4 points per game, even if his shooting percentage (38.7%) is inconsistent.

This is a tough matchup for Oregon, whose defense ranks just 135th in points allowed and 243rd in opponent FT%. The Ducks have allowed 80+ points in four of their last seven games and are vulnerable to teams that push tempo and attack the paint—two things Arizona does extremely well.

Offensively, Oregon ranks 173rd in three-point percentage and 150th in threes made per game. Arizona’s defense, while not elite, is plenty capable of limiting a Ducks team that doesn’t stretch the floor consistently and relies heavily on midrange creation. The Wildcats also hold a clear rebounding edge, ranking 22nd nationally vs Oregon’s 175th.

Arizona is 10-0 SU in its last 10 Sunday home games and has covered in 19 of 35 overall. With their firepower, inside-out scoring balance, and the ability to punish Oregon in transition and on the glass, the Wildcats are the right side. Lay the 3.5.