Best College Basketball Bets Today (Wednesday 3/20)

The NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and March Madness got officially underway Tuesday night with the First Four games in Dayton, Ohio. After a thrilling win by underdog Wagner over Howard and a destruction by Colorado State over Virginia, Wednesday brings us two additional matchups before the regular tournament kicks off at 12:15 p.m. ET Thursday afternoon.

Here are my two picks for Wednesday’s First Four matchups.

NCAA Tournament Play-In Games Best Bets

Grambling State vs. Montana State

Grambling State +4.5, FanDuel Sportsbook

Matt Logie took over the Montana State job this year after Danny Sprinkle left for Utah State and produced as great a season as any Bobcats fan could have predicted. After being projected to finish seventh in the preseason Big Sky poll, Montana State parlayed a solid 9-9 conference record into a three-game conference tournament win streak that led to their third consecutive conference tournament title. Despite returning only 29.6% of their minutes from last year (257th nationally), Logie cultivated an offensive attack that produced four players with double-digit scoring.

The Bobcats love to shoot the 3P and do it with super efficiency. Montana State shot 39.7% from 3P range within the Big Sky conference and generated 39% of their shots from deep. They also excel at defending the arc, allowing their opponents to only shoot 32.6% from 3P range across the entire season.

Grambling State got their revenge against Texas Southern for last year’s SWAC Conference Tournament Final by beating the Tigers 75-66 to earn their NCAA Tournament bid. Grambling State was ranked second in the SWAC preseason poll and won the regular-season title with a strong 14-6 record. The Tigers also sharpened their season with the second-hardest nonconference strength of schedule, battling teams such as Colorado, Iowa State, Sam Houston State, Florida and Drake. They shot 36% from 3P range within SWAC play, but only relied on the deep ball for 28.6% of their shots in the conference.

Neither team rebounds well, but Grambling State has more depth and should be able to generate more offense outside of relying on the 3P shot at a neutral site in Dayton. This line has moved a full point to Montana State -4.5, which is where I now see value on Grambling State. The Bobcats got hot in the Big Sky Tournament, upsetting rival Montana in the championship game, but this is too many points against a Grambling State team that has won 20 of their last 22 end-of-season games over the past two years.

The Pick

Grambling State +4.5

Colorado vs. Boise State Under 141

Boise State was shocked to hear they were placed in Dayton for a First Four matchup. The Broncos ranked 26th in the NET, posted six Quadrant I victories and battled the 32nd nonconference strength of schedule. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee criticized the Broncos for posting most of their big wins within the Mountain West, and not defeating quality opponents outside of their conference. The Broncos will get a chance to do that tonight against a quality Colorado Buffaloes team.

Colorado ended the regular season winning six straight games, followed by a trip to the Pac-12 Tournament Final. The Buffaloes star freshman Cody Williams has battled injuries all season but is healthy at the perfect time. Colorado is the fifth-best 3P shooting team in the nation (39.4%) and was top three in the conference in both offensive and defensive rebounding.

This profiles as an extremely close game, with both teams strong on the boards and the Broncos great at defending the perimeter. Instead of picking a side, I’m grabbing the under at 141 points on Bet365. Neither team plays at a particularly fast pace and is playing at a neutral site with the season on the line. Three of Colorado’s last four games have gone under this number, with only the Oregon game going over by three points as a result of N’faly Dante’s 25-point dominating performance. I think Colorado can limit Boise State’s 3P volume, while the rebounding advantage should keep this total low.