NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/21)
Alex Christenson
The NCAA Tournament bracket is set, and the 2024 college basketball March Madness is finally underway. Tuesday marks the opening day, where we get two Play-In-Games in Dayton to determine the final field of 64. Below is my betting analysis of each game.
NCAA Tournament Play-In Games Best Bets
Wagner vs. Howard
(Howard -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s a classic good offense vs. good defense matchup here as Howard sports one of the better low major offenses in the country behind Kenny Blakeney’s Princeton-style offense and ex-Ohio State Buckeye Seth Towns while Wager sports one of the scarier extended press zones in low major-dom. Both teams are extremely thin dealing with a multitude of injuries and running basically a seven-man rotation. Staying out of foul trouble will be key and although Howard draws fouls at an extremely high clip (11th nationally per KenPom) Wagner will look to limit their fouls by sitting in coach Copeland’s patented extended zone. What this game will come down to is if Howard’s backcourt can navigate Wagner’s extended pressure (354th nationally in turnover rate per KenPom) and get the ball to their best offensive weapon in Towns in areas he can score. Although Wagner does give up a ton of three pointers, per Shot Quality most of the threes opponents take are contested ranking 44th nationally in open 3pt rate. On offense, Wagner is below average at best and loves to use a ton of shot clock to halt the game to a grind. Yet, Howard’s soft press halfcourt defense has been diced up all year by bad offenses all season (334th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom). Although Howard is clearly the more talented team, matchup wise I think Wagner can frustrate a lot of what Howard wants to do offensively and the way I see this game being played will be in a style that’s much more comfortable for the Seahawks. I like getting the 3.5 points in a grinder.
The Pick
Wagner +3.5
Virginia vs. Colorado State
(Colorado State -3, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Without mentioning the mis-seeding of both these teams and just completely focusing on the matchup, boy do we have another first four game that will not be aesthetically pleasing to watch. Both Virginia and Colorado State both are the two lowest transition offenses in the country per Synergy so this game will live entirely in the half court. The Rams rank 270th in tempo nationally and the Hoos rank 362nd nationally per KenPom. Niko Medved’s deep playbook of different offensive sets certainly give the Rams the advantage on the offensive side of the ball, yet Colorado State goes as their all-conference point guard Isaiah Stevens goes and Virginia has the perfect antidote with the wiry Reece Beekman guarding him all night. Beekman is an elite perimeter defender and will make things extremely difficult for the Colorado State engine. The Cavs own the seventh-best defense in the country per KenPom, but where they do struggle is on the glass and protecting the rim, but does CSU have the personal to exploit that with their undersized frontcourt, especially if Scott and Cartier will be doubled on any post touches? Most likely not. Virginia has definitely seen better days offensively, but we’ve seen teams all year be able to score against the Rams at the rim. In another game that will be a grinder, Colorado State is certainly the more talented team but schematically I do see Virginia taking away a lot of what the Rams do well and CSU not being able to attack the UVA weaknesses. I like getting the points here again and sticking with the better defense.
The Pick
Virginia +3
