Best College Basketball Bets Today (Sunday 3/31)

The 2024 College Basketball NCAA Tournament is in full swing, and we have some fascinating Elite Eight matchups. There haven’t been a  lot of upsets this year, but that sets up for some powerhouse matchups from here on out. Below is my favorite bet for Sunday’s Elite Eight matchups. Let’s have some fun.

Purdue vs. Tennessee

(Purdue -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The top two seeds have made it out of the Midwest Region, as Purdue and Tennessee face off in an epic battle for a seat in the Final Four. The Boilermakers have dominated their way through their first three games thus far, with double-digit margins of victory. The Vols have had a few close calls in their last two matchups and have experienced some long scoring droughts but have been able to come out victorious through their stout defensive play. 

These two teams already met earlier in the year in Hawaii, which resulted in a four-point Purdue win, yet the game didn’t really feel that close down the stretch. This game has all the makeup to be a repeat of the 2019 Sweet 16 overtime thriller we saw between Matt Painter and Rick Barnes, but I certainly give the edge here to Boilermakers based on a few schematic advantages.

While the first matchup in Hawaii was more of a defensive battle, both offenses can have some success here. Tennessee defensively is a team with big positional size on the wing that packs it in and discourages dribble penetration and rarely doubles the post. Purdue’s offense isn’t predicated around perimeter penetration, as it owns one of the highest post rates in the country and continuously feeds All-American 7-footer Zach Edey inside and generates open looks from three. Edey had a big game (no surprise) in the first matchup and should again be a huge problem for the Volunteer defense. 

On offense, Tennessee could have some success in both its patented off-ball action by getting volume scorer Dalton Knecht in successful spots against the smaller Purdue guards and also with Zeigler in the pick-and-roll against Edey’s deeper drop coverage. It will be interesting to see how Barnes gameplans offensively against the Edey-anchored defense. I have seen some red flags with the Vols so far this tournament, specifically with their shot selection, and in a tight matchup, Edey is certainly the difference-maker here, mainly with the way he can get Tennessee in foul trouble. Braden Smith versus Zakai Zeigler will be an electric battle in the backcourt, but I envision Purdue getting a lot higher percentage looks through Edey than Tennessee will through Knecht, and I like the Boilermakers to come out on top here. 

The Pick

Purdue -3.5