Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NCAA Tournament already provided excitement and superb upsets from the opening round of games. No. 14 seed Oakland shocked No. 3 Kentucky, and No. 13 Yale pulled the upset of the tournament in a thrilling 78-76 upset over No. 4 Auburn. After a 2-1 day on my Friday night picks, here are three picks for the last day of the first weekend of March Madness!
(All Odds from DraftKings)
Texas A&M +10 vs. Houston
This line makes absolutely no sense. The Aggies played the Cougars at the Toyota Center in Houston back on Dec. 16. Texas A&M lost 70-66 without their second-leading scorer, Tyrece Radford (16.1 PPG). That was a crippling absence for an offense that ranks 344th in 3P shooting and 306th in 2P efficiency (KenPom). The Cougars played as well in that game as possible, shooting a surprising 11-of-27 (41%) from 3P range and an even more surprising 7-of-8 (87.5%) from the free-throw line. Houston registered 10 blocks on defense (it averages 4.7 BPG), and the Cougars still only won by four points. The Cougars also had Joseph Tugler (4 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks) and reserve guard Ryan Arceaneaux, both of which are unavailable in this game. The spread in that game was Houston -7.
Texas A&M is now fully healthy and coming off one of its best offensive games of the year in a 98-83 blowout of Nebraska. The Aggies made 13-of-23 (56.5%) of their 3PA, and leading-scorer Wade Taylor posted 25 points, including a blistering 7-of-10 from beyond the arc. With all of this information, Texas A&M is now getting three more points from its earlier matchup?
Texas A&M is not the matchup Houston wanted to see tomorrow. The way to beat the Cougars is to match their physicality and meet them at their strength. That is exactly what Texas A&M will do, which should keep this a close, low-scoring game. I’m taking Texas A&M +10 and will also be investing in a moneyline play as well.
Pick
Texas A&M +10
Clemson +4.5 vs. Baylor
I’ve loved this Clemson team all season despite their inconsistency. Clemson looked great against New Mexico, especially on defense. The Tigers held an explosive Lobos team to just 39% from 2P range and an anemic 13% of 3P range. Clemson rarely turns the ball over and shoots 79% from the free-throw line. Clemson simply needs 6-foot-10 center P.J. Hall to avoid foul trouble, and the Tigers have a legitimate chance to upset Baylor. This Clemson team won at Alabama and North Carolina. I will gladly grab the Tigers as a 4.5-point underdog to keep their run to the Final Four on track.
Pick
Clemson +4.5
Marquette -3.5 vs. Colorado
It’s time for Colorado’s run to end. Marquette’s defense is better than ever after having to fight their way through the Big East Tournament without Tyler Kolek. The Golden Eagles struggled in their first half against Western Kentucky, but then blitzed the Hilltoppers 51-26 in the second half. Kolek looks completely recovered from his oblique injury, posting 18 points and 11 assists.
Colorado has won two straight games in this tournament, and 10 of its last 11 matchups. However, its defense was exposed by a Florida team that posted 100 points and shot 56% from inside the arc. The Buffaloes are good at defending the 3P (31.7% allowed) but just average at limiting opponents inside the arc. That’s where Marquette generated 53% of its points in conference play, third-most in the Big East. Colorado struggles with turnovers and doesn’t force many on the defensive end. The Buffaloes have enjoyed a good run, but it ends here with a fantastic Marquette team.
Pick
Marquette -3.5
