Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
And then there were four!
The 2024 NCAA Tournament is down to just four teams, with two fantastic matchups scheduled tonight. Both games feature heavy favorites with Purdue a 9.5-point favorite over NC State and Connecticut a massive 11.5-point favorite over Alabama.
Let’s take a look at tonight’s best bet for the Final Four!
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 4 Alabama
8:49 p.m. ET
Cam Spencer Over 15.5 Points
Cam Spencer has been the unsung leader of this Connecticut team, ranking second in scoring at 14.4 points per game. He also rarely leaves the floor, averaging 32.7 minutes per game, second only to Tristen Newton.
This is a play on regression, as Spencer has failed to produce his regular-season level of scoring during the NCAA Tournament. He is averaging just 13.8 PPG and 30.8 MPG, as the Huskies have dominated each of their opponents in March Madness. Tonight, UConn will face a poor defensive team in Alabama that has allowed 82 or more points to three of its four tournament opponents.
Spencer is at his best in the biggest games, with teams prioritizing the need to defend the Huskies center Donovan Clingan or the perimeter attack of Newton. Spencer’s ability to get open and dominate the game in the intermediate area of the floor gives him a great chance to eclipse this number. He is shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc in the tournament and has attempted the most 3P shots on the Connecticut roster.
I’m projecting Alabama to defend Clingan and Newton, while splitting its perimeter focus between Spencer and Karaban. Spencer is a much more versatile scorer than Karaban, and his big-game pedigree should get him over this number, despite his recent struggles.
If Alabama struggled to stop Clemson, it will have limited answers for UConn. That should translate to a huge game for the gritty and talented Spencer.
Pick
Cam Spencer Over 15.5 Points
