Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a wild opening round of the NCAA Tournament, 32 teams remain trying to survive the first weekend and punch their ticket to the Sweet 16. Saturday marks the beginning of the second round, and we have a ton of fascinating games throughout the day. Below is my favorite bet of Saturday’s second-round games. Let’s have some fun.
Kansas vs. Gonzaga
Gonzaga -4.5, DraftKings Sportsbook
Both Gonzaga and Kansas were able to avoid the dreaded March Madness first-round upset on Thursday, but in very different ways. The Zags controlled McNeese State from start to finish, cruising to a 21-point win, while the Jayhawks struggled late with a rallying Samford team. The main story continues to revolve around how Kansas can perform without their star wing Kevin McCullar, who has been shut down for the tournament with a knee injury, and how their role players can step up. His presence definitely seemed to be missed in their first-round game, as there were times Kansas struggled to slow down Samford’s runs and generate consistent offense. After surviving their first game, they now get matched up with a surging Gonzaga team who matches up well with the Jayhawks on both ends of the floor.
Both teams have similar profiles and both really want to work the ball into the post to their dominant big men in Graham Ike (Gonzaga) and Hunter Dickinson (Kansas). Both bigs should be able to find success against each other, so the key to this game will be the battle on the perimeter. The hole that McCullar leaves on the perimeter may finally catch up to the Jayhawks, whose rotation is already very thin and lacks three-point shooting. Gonzaga will have much more perimeter firepower on offense and also has the better overall individual defenders. I’ve seen this number get bet down, and I’m sure it has to do with Bill Self on short prep. That said, I still like the Zags to roll and get to their ninth consecutive Sweet 16.
The Pick
Gonzaga -4.5
Illinois vs Duquesne
Illinois -10, DraftKings Sportsbook
Incredible run for Keith Dambrot in his final year before retirement, as the Dukes ran through the Atlantic 10 conference tournament and just physically beat the hell out of a finesse BYU offense. Can Duquesne utilize that same physicality and have success against the Illini? Most likely not, as Illinois has the positional size and physicality to not get bullied in this one. Illinois pulled away late against Morehead State through the stellar play of Markus Domask, Terrence Shannon and especially Dain Dainja, and I think they put together big performances again here.
The Dukes hang their hat on the defensive end with their ability to switch one through five using their elite size, length and physicality to force their opponents into inefficient isolation situations. Enter the god himself Shannon, and triple-double watch Domask, who both thrive in isolation. Duquesne also loves to crash the offensive glass, which leaves them susceptible in transition, and this Illini squad is absolutely lethal in transition with their downhill attack. On offense, Duquesne’s anemic 154th ranked (per Kenpom) offense will rely a ton of Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark in the midrange against the Illini drop coverage, which we saw against BYU could be a struggle. The same reasons Duquesne found success against BYU are the reasons why I think they struggle against this dangerous Illini team, and we should see another blowout for Brad Underwood and Co.
The Pick
Illinois -10
