Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
March Madness is finally here, and we get the second set of play-in games Wednesday. Here’s my favorite plays for Wednesday’s play-in games.
Arizona State vs. Nevada
(Line: Arizona State -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This one should be at least a little more fun than Tuesday’s ugly Pitt/Miss St battle, and we even get a little bit of a narrative here with Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington of Arizona State going up against their former team. The Sun Devils are one of the highest isolation and ball screen based offenses you’ll see with their slew of talented guards taking a ton of shots off the bounce, with one of the worst shot-making and rim and three rates in the country per ShotQuality. Nevada’s defense is vastly improved this season (ranking 43rd nationally per KenPom) behind ballhawk and versatile point guard Kenan Blackshear. Arizona State has great individual defenders of their own and turn you over at a high clip (57th nationally) to help generate offense the other way, but Nevada rarely turns the ball over (25th nationally in turnover rate) and Steve Alford is very creative in his off-ball actions, utilizing sharpshooter Jarod Lucas off of a ton of screens and mobile big man Will Baker in different spots on the court. The Sun Devils’ defensive success this season has stemmed from the addition of their elite rim protector Warren Washington surveying the paint (sixth nationally in 2pt FG%), but the Wolfpack have two versatile bigs that can step out score from the outside to mitigate that advantage in Will Baker and Nick Davidson. Overall, this should be another back and forth matchup but I trust Steve Alford to put his guys into more successful spots to have success offensively than Bobby Hurley and think the Sun Devils only pull this one out if they are hitting tough contested shots at a high rate. Give me the points.
The Pick
Nevada +2
Texas Southern vs. FDU
(Line: Texas Southern -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Classic size versus speed matchup as FDU comes into Dayton as the smallest team in the entire country while Texas Southern rolls out two highly skilled 6-foot-9 bigs in John Walker and Joirdon Karl Nicholas who will be licking their chops in this one. FDU has found success using their speed and aggressiveness to their advantage this season, pressing at the highest rate in the entire country and forcing opponents to constantly turn the ball over (33rd nationally) leading to easy buckets the other way. If they can’t get easy ones off of live ball turnovers, FDU really just runs five-out on offense seeking mismatches from one of their guards. The key to this matchup will be how well veteran point guard PJ Henry can handle the FDU press. Texas Southern has seen a ton of press in the SWAC and if the Tigers can limit live ball turnovers, they should be able to easily run away with this one. FDU sports one of the worst defenses in the entire country (361st nationally) and the size of John Walker and Joirdan Karl Nicholas should have an absolute field day on the glass. Johnny Jones and Texas Southern have been here before and should have enough poise and dominance inside to pull this one out.
The Pick
Texas Southern -2
