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Chris Meaney
The 2022-23 college basketball season is winding down, and March is finally here. We get some exciting matchups in conference tournament play. Below is my favorite bet for Tuesday’s slate.
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga
(Line: Gonzaga -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s a heavyweight matchup here in the WCC tournament final between bitter rivals St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. These two teams tend to find themselves pitted against each other every year in the WCC final game, and this may be St. Mary’s best chance of taking home the hardware. The Zags have been on a tear after their overtime loss to St. Mary’s in the beginning of February, winners of eight straight. St. Mary’s have been the darling of all the analytics tools all season and have ripped through WCC play pretty effortlessly minus a hiccup against LMU and the recent loss at the Kennel against Gonzaga.
There are a few keys to this game that jump out in this chess match. The first is pace — Gonzaga really wants to get out and run in transition in order to get easy buckets, while St. Mary’s will make it their business to try to keep this game in the halfcourt and limit possessions to the low 60s. If they are able to reduce the amount of points the Zags generate in transition, that gives them a massive leg up. Another key to this game will be the back court play of Gonzaga. St. Mary’s defense is known for its hard ball screen hedges and ability to run shooters off the three-point line, forcing them to make put the ball on the floor and make plays. Although the Gonzaga back court has improved a lot throughout the season, it has been their Achilles’ heel at times and if they struggle at all against the extremely disciplined Gaels defense, that gives another leg up to SMC. The Gaels also defend the paint extremely well ranking 14th nationally in 2pt FG% defense and second in defensive rebounding rate per KenPom. Drew Timme is Drew Timme, though, and is basically matchup proof. I would expect Randy Bennett to focus his defense on limiting production from the backcourt rather than trying to stop Timme. I think the Gaels should be able to keep this game in the halfcourt and out-execute the Zags and Randy Bennett has shown he is one of the best game planners in the country. Any sort of changes Mark Few can throw at them (like a full court press) I am confident Bennett can handle. Love getting a few points here as well in what should be a close epic battle for the WCC championship.
The Pick
St. Mary’s +2.5
