Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
March Madness is finally here, and we get the first set of play-in games Tuesday. Here’s my favorite plays for Tuesday’s action.
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State
(Line: Mississippi State -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s going to be an ugly start to the tournament here with a Pittsburgh team that really struggled down the stretch going up against Mississippi State, who wants to slow the game down (334th in tempo per KenPom) and owns an elite defense (sixth nationally per KenPom). The status of Pittsburgh center Federiko Federiko looms large as he is very questionable with a knee injury and the Panthers will need all the help they can get to throw bodies at Bulldog center Tolu Smith, who is their primary source of offense in the post. Both teams pack it in and clog the lane on defense, daring opponents to launch three pointers (Pitt is 267th in 3pt FGA defense, Miss State is 346th). Big difference here is that Pitt can actually hit threes (36%) while Mississippi State certainly cannot (26.6%!). I certainly have a lean to the under here, but trust the Panther backcourt way more than the Mississippi State backcourt to generate offense and Burton/Cummings can get in the lane to create open shots for Pitt’s shooters. Miss State will definitely have the advantage in the frontcourt, but with the chance of Federiko playing and the Diaz brothers, I don’t think Pitt gets absolutely dominated there. Pitt has played well against a similar defensive scheme in Virginia earlier this season, give me the points.
The Pick
Pittsburgh +2.5
TAMCC vs. SEMO
(Total: 156, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Both teams play very fast, with TAMCC the 80th-fastest team per KenPom and SEMO flying in at the seventh-fastest team. Big story here is the season ending knee injury to Corpus star guard Terrion Murdix in the Southland Championship game, who is the heart and soul of the Islanders and their primary ball handler. SEMO wants to get out in transition, otherwise they run a ton of ball screens for dynamo point guard Phillip Russell or owns a 29% usage rate and is in the 87th percentile per Synergy in ball screen usage. TAMCC is decent in their transition defense ranking in the 51st percentile in time in transition defense and are pretty stout in defending the pick and roll (90th percentile per Synergy). TAMCC plays a heavy denial defense so if they are able to stop SEMO in transition we will see a ton of Russell in ball screens trying to make plays. On the offensive side of the ball, the Islanders most likely will look to be a bit more methodical in their shot selection without Murdix and expect them to try to generate offense by seeking a lot of three pointers and crashing the glass. I do lean TAMCC here even without Murdix (especially having the experience of playing in this game last season) but seeing the total get bet up to 156 and seeing some potential problems both teams could have offensively, I’d rather play the under instead of laying the points. Hopefully we don’t see a foul show at the end.
The Pick
Under 156
