Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The 2022-23 college basketball season is underway, and we get some exciting matchups in the nonconference schedule. Below are my favorite bets for Tuesday’s Legends Classic. Let’s have some fun.
Texas vs. Illinois
(Line: Texas -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Legends Classic at Madison Square Garden is always one of my favorite nonconference events, and we get a great matchup between Illinois and Texas to start us off. Texas comes into this game undefeated in Chris Beard’s second year, and their offense looks much improved and revitalized from a season ago after adding Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter. We all know a Beard-coached team will defend at a high level, but the addition of Hunter at point guard has allowed Beard to move Marcus Carr off the ball into a more comfortable scoring role and has greatly improved their offense from a season ago (15th nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom). Illinois on the other side has had the daunting task of replacing 7-foot behemoth Kofi Cockburn and their veteran leader Trent Frazier, but the Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon & junior big man Coleman Hawkins have really stepped up their game for the Illini to replace production. Brad Underwood has ramped up the defensive pressure this season with his more versatile roster and the key to this game will be if Texas can consistently generate quality looks without turning the ball over.
Illinois has been pressing more frequently and turning teams over at a 24.6% rate so far this season, which ranks 24th nationally. Although this will be the toughest defense Texas has seen all season, having two ball handlers who have vastly improved their turnover rates from a season ago will help ease Illinois’s defensive pressure. With Hunter handling the ball for the Longhorns this season, they rank 34th nationally in offensive turnover percentage. On offense, Illinois generates a large portion of their offense through three pointers (46% of their FGA are from three) while Texas’s no-middle pressure defense funnels ball handlers to the rim and forces them to finish over the length of Dylan Disu and Dillon Mitchell. Matchup wise, the Illini combo guard Terrence Shannon is off to an All-American caliber start to the season, but elite defender Tyrese Hunter could make his night difficult for him in New York. Also, Texas has a ton of length to throw at stretch forward Coleman Hawkins who all have the ability to guard him on the perimeter. With the guard play to handle the Illini pressure and the defensive matchups the Longhorns can exploit, Texas should be able to generate offense much easier than Illinois and unless Shannon goes 8-9 from three like he did against UCLA, I see this game going similarly to the Virginia game. Hook ‘em.
The Pick: Texas -2
Duke vs. Iowa
(Line: Duke -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
To end the night at Madison Square Garden we get a fun matchup between Iowa and Duke. Coach Jon Scheyer has enormous shoes to fill after the retirement of Mike Krzyzewski, but the recruiting trail has been kind to him — although very young, Duke is loaded with talent. Iowa looks to be a carbon copy of Fran McCaffery’s squad from a season ago and it especially helps when you lose your best player and All-American Keegan Murray, his twin brother Kris steps up and fills the exact same role with the same production for the Hawkeyes. Duke has had some ups and downs to start the year, which is expected from any young team with a brand new head coach, but they are finally getting healthy with their top two freshmen Derek Lively and Isaiah Whitehead slowly earning more minutes game-by-game. Will Duke be able to keep up with Iowa’s third-ranked offense in what should be an up-tempo game? I think this is the perfect matchup for their talented freshman to shine.
The Hawkeyes have had the same philosophy under Fran McCaffrey during his tenor at Iowa, and that has been to assemble a top-five offense and outscore your opponents, worry about defense later. This year is no different, as Iowa’s hyper efficient third-ranked offense per KenPom hums behind wing Kris Murray and combo guard Tony Perkins. Yet, an up-tempo offensive-minded game plays exactly into this young talented Duke team’s hands. A physical and disciplined team like Purdue or Oregon State gives the young Duke freshmen all kinds of problems, but a more free-flowing, transition-oriented game is where their skillsets can shine. Iowa has always been poor at rebounding the ball on the defensive glass as they want to get out in transition, where Duke has been great on the offensive glass this season, ranking second nationally, and Kyle Filipowski can have a huge advantage there. Duke has also had some bad three-point luck all season, shooting only 30.5% from three, and what better way to see some positive shooting regression against an Iowa team that struggles to defend the three. Stud freshmen Derek Lively and Isaiah Whitehead are starting to trend towards full health and a fully healthy Duke team is scary talented. In what should be an up-tempo game, I think Duke (who historically has played very well at the Garden) can out firepower the Hawkeyes in this one.
The Pick: Duke -2.5
