Best College Basketball Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 12/5)

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December 5, 2023

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The Jimmy V Classic was started in 1995 by ESPN as a way to raise money and awareness for cancer research. It is named after legendary head coach Jim Valvano, who led North Carolina State to the 1983 National Championship with a legendary win over the Houston Cougars. The four-team, two-game showcase has been held at Madison Square Garden the majority of years, including the last four seasons.

Tuesday features two fantastic matchups with No. 11 Florida Atlantic battling No. 20 Illinois and No. 9 UNC vs. No. 5 Connecticut. Clearly, this is a pair of superior matchups.

Who are we backing? Here is my pick for the first game of Tuesday’s Jimmy V Classic at MSG.

Florida Atlantic -2 vs. Illinois

(-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)

You knew this was coming. Florida Atlantic returns “home” to Madison Square Garden, where they clinched their trip to the Final Four last year after a fantastic Elite Eight victory over Kansas State.

Florida Atlantic enters this game having dominated their opponents, with only an inexplicable misstep. The Owls are an impressive 7-1, but they lost at home to Bryant 61-52 on Nov. 18. Since that matchup, they beat Texas A&M (scoring 96 points), Virginia Tech (by 34), a good Liberty team (by 25) and a hot-shooting Charleston squad (by 16). They win with an aggressive defense and super-efficient offense, shooting 38.4% from 3P range and 58.6% from inside the arc. Their offense has a level of explosion and athleticism that few teams can match.

Illinois will bring a stiff challenge, particularly on the defensive end. Head coach Brad Underwood has conceived his team on the importance of solid, fundamental defense, ranking eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and first overall in effective field goal percentage allowed. However, the Illini have not played a consistent caliber of opponents at FAU’s level. Four of their seven opponents rank outside the top-270 in KenPom. They played a strong Marquette team at home and lost 71-64. They opened up their Big Ten conference schedule with a big 76-58 win at Rutgers Saturday, but the Scarlet Knights are severely challenged on offense in 3P accuracy (30.4%), 2P percentage (46.1%), and free-throw shooting (64.7%).

This is a close matchup between two Final Four caliber teams, but Florida Atlantic has a significant advantage on the offensive end of the floor. The Owls defense has also improved, forcing 12 or more turnovers against Texas A&M, Liberty and Virginia Tech. If you also account for Illinois’ woeful free throw percentage (57.8%), I will roll with the Owls tonight to cover this small number in a magical return trip to MSG.