Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is underway, and we get some exciting matchups in the nonconference schedule. Below are my favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
Virginia vs. Miami
(Line: Virginia -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Virginia is coming off their first loss of the season against a very good Houston team and travels to Miami to match up against a streaking one-loss team of their own. The health of Reece Beekman is a breath of fresh air for Virginia fans, as he did not look limited by his injured hamstring at all in their last game, logging 34 minutes. He will get the assignment in chasing around dynamic lead guard Isaiah Wong, who has just been on fire of late, scoring over 22 points in each of Miami’s last three games. Miami’s offense is generated through both Wong and Jordan Miller relentlessly attacking the rim with Arkansas State transfer Norchad Ormier looking to clean up the offensive glass. The Hurricanes could find themselves in some trouble offensively, as Tony Bennett’s pack line defense is specifically designed to wall off the paint. Miami will need to move the ball quickly and shoot over the top of the pack line to find success and they have shot the three-pointer poorly all season (151st nationally in 3pt FG%). Unless Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack (who has been dealing with an illness) breaks out and has a big shooting performance, I don’t see Miami having much success against Virginia’s pack line defense and this game playing out like both matchups from a year ago where Virginia won. The Hoos offense looks vastly improved this year (11th nationally), and I think they score easily enough to pull this one out on the road.
The Pick: Virginia -2
UNC vs. Michigan
(Line: UNC -5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
After the early-season four-game losing streak and every media member burying UNC down their polls (even though they ranked them No. 1 in the preseason), I am very excited to be buying the Tar Heels low. KenPom currently has them rated about 10 spots too low and I will continue to pull the trigger after the overreaction. They’ll go up against a very fragile Michigan team in Charlotte that is down is starting point guard to injury and doesn’t get much production outside of their superstar big man Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson won’t have an easy time, as he’ll be matched up with a beast in his own right Armando Bacot, who gave him loads of issues a season ago in UNC’s 21-point win over a much better Michigan squad. Michigan’s strength offensively is their ability to take care of the basketball without turning it over (first nationally in turnover rate offense), yet North Carolina doesn’t rely on turnovers at all defensively (299th in turnover rate defense). Michigan has shown a ton of issues of their own defensively so far this year with this young team (91st nationally) and UNC’s dynamic offense can certainly exploit that. Dickinson will need to have a A+ performance against one of the best bigs in the country to keep this game competitive or else the Tar Heels will be running them out of the gym and kill them in the short pick and roll, similarly to a season ago.
The Pick: UNC -5
