Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is finally here, and we get some fun matchups Tuesday, starting with the Champions Classic. Below is my favorite bet Tuesday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
Kentucky vs. Michigan State
(Line: Kentucky -6.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sparty almost pulled off a shocker on the Aircraft Carrier in San Diego as 11-point dogs to Gonzaga, but couldn’t quite pull it out at the end. Yes, maybe a little of it had to do with poor shooting and playing outdoors, but my main take away from that game is that Michigan State has an edge this year, something we haven’t seen from the Spartans in some time. AJ Hoggard and Malik Hall have the potential be all-conference players if they continue to stay aggressive and Tom Izzo finally seems to have a rotation that makes some sense rather than playing 15 guys like he has been for the last few years. Kentucky introduces their own challenges but comes into this matchup a little banged up most likely without reigning Wooden Award winner Oscar Tshiebwe and a limited Sahvir Wheeler.
Michigan State’s glaring weakness this year is their thin interior (199th in defensive rebounding rate per KenPom), which could be seen in the second half of the Gonzaga game when Drew Timme decided to take over the game and dominate the interior. Mady Sissoko did show some flashes but Sparty is extremely thin behind him. Yet, without automatic rebounding machine Oscar Tshiebwe in the fold, Michigan State should have an easier time containing the Kentucky frontcourt. The Wildcat offense still looks like a work in progress with a ton of new faces and easing point guard Sahvir Wheeler back from injury. Their offense has looked good from an analytical stand point but a lot of it can be contributed to hot shooting (51.2% from three). I bet we see some shooting regression here and the wing length of Michigan State can cause Wallace, Frederick and Reeves some discomfort. AJ Hoggard should be able to make enough plays to keep this game close. Coach Calipari has been known to stumble a little bit in the beginning of the season as well. I have this game capped at 3.5 so I love the extra points.
The Pick: Sparty +6.5
