Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups in the middle of conference play. Below is my favorite bet for Tuesday’s slate.
Iowa vs. Northwestern
(Line: Iowa -6.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
After losing Pete Nance and Ryan Young to the transfer portal, Chris Collins is on his way to saving his job, leading a less talented team to a 15-5 (6-3) record, and Northwestern is off to its best start since 2017. The Cats find themselves all the way up to 43rd nationally per KenPom. I’ve been waiting for a chance to fade them, and this is the perfect opportunity on the road against an Iowa team that is fully healthy and Northwestern has historically struggled with (just look at the 112-76 loss in the Big Ten Tournament a season ago). Matchup wise, Northwestern has really found success in their packed line defense that ranks seventh nationally in 2pt FG% and allows a ton of three-pointers (334th nationally in 3pt FGA defense). Yet, Iowa’s ability to speed opponents up and get buckets in transition before the defense sets up can really combat that. Iowa’s seventh-ranked offense has elite ball movement and lights-out shooters all over the floor including the McCaffrey brothers, Ahron Ulis and Peyton Sandfort.
The Hawkeyes have really found success recently with their small ball lineup putting their versatile phenom Kris Murray at the center position, surrounding him with four shooters. This is the exact type of lineup Northwestern struggle mightily to defend and if Iowa speeds them up (42nd nationally in tempo) the Wildcats could be in trouble. To me, Northwestern has modeled themselves this year to a poorer version of Rutgers, with their hard-nosed defense and just making enough plays on offense through inconsistent Boo Buie and volume shooter Chase Audige to pull out some wins. But Iowa’s elite ball movement and transition attack has been the kryptonite to Rutgers twice this year already and I think we see the same fate with Northwestern. I’ll gladly lay the points with the home crowd in Iowa City on a Super Tuesday night as I don’t think Northwestern will have the firepower to keep up.
The Pick
Iowa -6.5
