Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups in the middle of conference play. Below are my favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State
(Line: Wisconsin -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
After losing three straight games without their best player (Tyler Wahl) due to an ankle injury, Badger fans will be thrilled as he’s reported to be back in a home bout against a solid Penn State team. The three-game losing streak has plummeted Wisconsin’s KenPom ranking to 67th, making them severely undervalued and a good buy-low opportunity against a Penn State team that is a tad overrated.
When looking at Penn State’s advanced metrics, the thing that sticks out is their three-point shooting. They rank seventh nationally in 3pt FG%, shooting at a 39.5% clip and 13th nationally in 3pt FGA. The Nittany Lions are bombing three balls this year and their high percentage is what is leading to their success. Diving deeper into their roster, it’s easy to project mean reversion here as just about everyone on the roster is shooting the ball better than they did a season ago (Penn State with a similar roster shot 34% from three a season ago). Their entire offense runs through the dynamic playmaking ability of ex-Siena transfer Jalen Pickett, who is having an All-American type of year. Yet, Wisconsin’s packed in defense clogs the lane and discourages dribble drives, which could slow Pickett down a bit. Picket struggled mightily a season ago against this packed Badger defense only putting up 4 points in a loss. With Wahl back, the Wisconsin offense is a totally different machine and both Wahl and big man Steven Crowl should be able to find a ton of success inside against a weak Penn State interior where they are severely undersized. With the oncoming three-point shooting regression, the advantage inside and the ability to slow down Penn State’s best player, I will be siding with the Badgers to cover and pull out the much-needed home win.
The Pick
Wisconsin -2.5
