Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is winding down, and March is finally here. We get some exciting matchups in conference tournament play. Below is my favorite bet for Saturday’s slate.
Indiana vs. Penn St
(Line: Total 139.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Fun Big Ten semifinal matchup here with Penn State’s combo guard Jalen Pickett’s “booty ball” against Indiana’s one-two combo of All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis and freshman Jalen Hood-Shifino. Penn State looks to have played themselves into a tournament bid while Indiana is fighting for a higher seed. These teams only met once during the regular season where the Nittany Lions torched the Hoosiers, putting up 85 points and shooting 18-31 from three in a rout at University Park.
The Penn State offense is predicated around All-Conference combo guard Jalen Pickett working in isolation against smaller guards, scoring on the advantageous mismatch or finding the Penn State shooters when help comes. The Indiana defense is known for their aggressive ball screen and dribble penetration help and we should see similar success from the Nittany Lion offense with Pickett finding sharpshooters Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk on the perimeter for open threes. This is exactly what coach Micah Shrewsberry wants from the eighth-best three-point shooting team in the country (38.8% 3pt FG%). On the other side of the ball, All-American phenom Jackson-Davis should be licking his chops against this Nittany Lion interior defense where the only player over 6-8 is super raw freshman Kebba Njie. Jackson-Davis has turned into a complete killer the second half of the season and should be able to score at will against the very tiny Penn State interior. I think both offenses should have a ton of success in this one and I’m not sure why the public has bet this number down while KenPom has the total set at 146. The pace may be a little slow but we should see a ton of easy looks from three from Penn State and at the rim from Indiana for this game to go over.
The Pick
Over 139.5
