Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy New Year’s Day to everyone reading this article today. Now is the time when we really start to focus on college basketball with college football ending. There are just four lined games today, so let’s take a look at each of them to see if there’s any value.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hampton at Drexel
Noon
Drexel -14
It’s the second year for Hampton in the CAA, as they begin conference play on the road at Drexel. The Pirates are 4-8 so far with three of those victories being over lower-level opponents. They are one of the faster teams tempo-wise in the country, and their defense is rather porous. The squad has been off since Dec. 21, so we’ll see how effective they are against the 7-6 Dragons. Drexel plays with one of the slowest tempos in the country, and at home they’ve been able to slow down all of their opponents and make them play at their speed. The Dragons are tremendous defensively and one of the worst at shooting the three, checking in 340th in 3pt%. Last year, these two teams split their two meetings with the home teams winning.
UT Arlington at Texas
2 p.m ET
Texas -18
The Longhorns enter this one 10-2, as they get set for conference play this coming Saturday vs. Texas Tech. Last time out, they smashed UNC Greensboro 72-37 in a 62-possession game. Texas does pretty much everything really well, but specializes in their defense that is 21st in 2pt%. They’ve won six of their eight home contests by more than this spread. Arlington is 6-6 on the year and has lost 101-56 at Arizona, 82-80 at New Mexico and 77-66 at Texas Tech. The Mavericks have a massive turnover issue at 355th in turnover percentage. We may see a little bit of a faster pace in this one, but that will only help Texas.
North Alabama at Texas Tech
2 p.m. ET
Texas Tech -18
The aforementioned Red Raiders are also at home Monday afternoon, as they host North Alabama before that matchup with the Longhorns. This team has won five straight and is very impressive on both sides of the ball. They play with a slightly below-average tempo and are 20th in FT%, which always helps in a closer game. Texas Tech has been all over the place at home, winning games by 27, 29 and 36 but also by 14, 9, 6 and 11. North Alabama is 6-7 and has already played at Mississippi State, Kansas State and Indiana this season. They’ve been off since Dec. 21 when they fell 83-66 to the Hoosiers. The Lions lost by 1 in OT in Manhattan Kansas back on Dec. 2.
Texas A&M Commerce at TCU
4 p.m. ET
TCU -26
The Horned Frogs have been impressive this season, starting out 10-2. They beat up on some easy opponents the first six contests but then slipped up in neutral-court games against Clemson and Nevada. They’ve been off since Christmas Eve when they played Hawaii in their tournament. The Horned Frogs are very efficient on offense and force a lot of turnovers on defense. Their offense is heavily predicated on two-pointers with 58.8% of their total points coming from there. I don’t think there will be a look-ahead here after the time off, but they begin conference play at Kansas on Saturday. The Lions are 6-6 and have been off longer, last playing a lower-level team on Dec. 18. They’ve gotten blasted at Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Kentucky and SMU already this year, but also won at St. Joe’s. They don’t do a lot well, so the big question here is how focused is TCU and for how long. They are going to win the game, but will they ease up in the second half and get more players some action?
