2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips

March is here, and that means everybody’s favorite college basketball tournament is here as well. With March Madness comes a few exciting things, including some highly entertaining basketball games, but I likely speak for many when I say the best part about March Madness is getting in on the action yourself. Whether it’s betting on player props, betting on sides and/or totals, or competing in a bracket pool, there is no sweat quite like the one associated with the NCAA Tournament. 

Check out our full 2023 March Madness Betting Guide here.

In this article I am going to run through the best ways to fill out your brackets. I have all the data and knowledge needed thanks to our team of experts at FTN, and many of you reading this will also rely on that same information. So in this article I will run through some of the best practices for using our content and tools to build a bracket. However, I am also a professional DFS player and sports bettor, so I have some experience in utilizing game theory and other tactics in formats and games such as bracket challenge (which I have happened to have a ton of success in over the last few years thanks to the data and content at FTN), so with that experience I’ll also touching on some of my personal favorite rules and strategies for building a bracket. 

General Rules

Let’s start with some general rules. Not all of these rules are steadfast or bulletproof, but they are ones that I have been using over the last few years and will use them once again this season. 

The first rule is understanding your reason for building a bracket. Are you looking to win the top prize? Are you looking to just have an added interest when watching the games? Is your significant other forcing you to build a bracket, the way I make my wife fill out a bracket each year? If you don’t really mind how well or not you do, then some of these rules you can avoid, and instead you should just focus on how you want to build your bracket.

Now, if you are like me and you’re looking to beat everyone, there are a couple of rules I think are crucial. First, make multiple brackets. If you are planning on being competitive with these brackets, most of your contests will allow you to use several entries, take advantage of that. If your contests only allow one entry, get in some other additional contests. 

This next rule coincides with the first rules, and that is to make sure you are diversifying within your several brackets. Sure, you probably saw Memphis win their conference tournament over the championship favorite Houston and feel really confident that they beat Florida Atlantic in the first round. However, if you are failing to diversify, a few wrong picks will pile up quickly and not only tank all of your brackets but also tank your March Madness experience. 

Back to Memphis and how they probably impressed you with their big win last weekend, well guess what, they probably impressed a ton of others as well. That brings me to my third rule, find smart ways to be unique. It is super easy to be unique when filling out a bracket, as you have hundreds of different paths to building a bracket, so try to find places to take unique stands.

Next, try to find the sweet spot for your upset picks. You definitely don’t want to be that guy or girl who is taking the favorite in every matchup, because we all know that is never going to happen. However, on the flip side, taking every 9-14 seed to win their first-round matchups is also unrealistic. It is impossible to give an exact number, but for my brackets I will want at least 1-2 upsets per region and no more than four. 

The final general rule I will touch on is to understand the competition. By that I don’t mean to understand the level of knowledge that all your opponents have — I mean to understand how many people you are competing against. The more people you are competing against, the more unique you will need to in order to have your correct picks really separate you from the field. This is a concept anyone who plays DFS will surely understand, but for example, let’s say 80% of your bracket pool takes Duke to win in the first round. If you correctly guess Duke, you aren’t really gaining any ground on the field in terms of trying to take that number one spot. Vice versa, let’s say you select a team such as the Tennessee Volunteers to make it to the Final Four, and only 5% of your pool selects that, you will be gaining ground on 95% of the field. When you are playing in smaller contests, you don’t need to take as dramatic stands in order to get those picks that can really separate you, but regardless of the contest, you should be keeping that in mind. 

Using FTN Tools and Content to Build Your Bracket

First, let’s touch on our college basketball model, courtesy of Frank Brank and our team here at FTN. This model will be a great place to turn to find the top edges of the day. Using advanced data, the model runs thousands of simulations of the game to determine the best bets of the day when comparing the models results to the lines at various sportsbooks. Here you can find the best sides and totals bets of the day. 

On the back of that college basketball model, we have simulations of the actual NCAA Tournament, you can use this to find discrepancies in terms of things such as seeding. 

Another great asset is the college basketball power rankings tool, where FTN’s Mike Cutri lists his top 25 teams in the country. This is a nice asset when looking to bet on potential future plays. For example, Mike lists UCLA has his second-best team, while the Bruins currently have the fifth-best odds to win the tournament, creating a nice bit of value there. And Mike is quite the trustworthy source, as he is up over 120 units in our Bet Tracker this year.

Similarly, you can use Mike Randle’s Big Board in the same way. Randle is also up over 70 units on the year in our Bet Tracker.

Historic March Madness Trends

When looking at trends, it is important to realize that sometimes things don’t happen until they do. For example, 16 seeds are 1-147 in their first-round matchup against opposing 1-seeds. However, some trends really stick out and can give us an idea of some potentially repeatable patterns:

• Since the addition of the First Four to the NCAA Tournament 11 years ago, 90% of tournaments have had a team from the First Four advance to the second round. This could be a great spot to be unique, as some people may fill their brackets out before the First Four games are even played. 
• Teams from the Mountain West Conference are 0-8 in the tournament over the last four years. Four teams from the MW are in this year — San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, and Utah State. Not to say all four of those teams are sure to lose, but all four teams currently have spreads of 5 points or less. 
• In less than 15% of the last 40 NCAA Tournaments, every top-four seed has advanced to the second round. That goes to show that there will likely be upsets from these top teams, so don’t be afraid to be aggressive, especially with 4 seeds, as everyone’s favorite upsets usually come from the 5/12 seed matchups (rightfully so, as 5 seeds are just 21-19 over the last 10 tournaments).
• The last four 3-seed teams to lose in the first round came from the Big 12. This trend may be a bit noisier, but I think it just goes to speak on the fragility of the non-elite Big 12 teams. This year we have Baylor and Kansas State as 3-seeds.
• Per KenPom, only three Final Four teams have ranked outside the top 40 in defensive efficiency since the 2012 tournament. And since 2012, all but one team has finished a top 25 offensive and defensive efficiency team. This would remove notable teams such as Purdue (however, they are seventh in OEF and just miss the defensive mark at 26th so there is a chance they reach this mark but the end of the tournament), Tennessee, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas as potential candidates — leaving Houston, Alabama, UCLA, Texas, and UConn as teams currently meeting the criteria. 
  • Other teams that are close to these requirements are Creighton, Purdue, Kansas, Arizona, Memphis, Florida Atlantic, St. Mary’s, Indiana, Duke, Texas A&M, Auburn, Michigan State, USC, and Maryland are all top 50 in both metrics currently.
• Back to the general rule of not going overboard on upsets, at least one 1-seed team has made the Final Four in each of the last 10 tournaments. 
• The Final Four has featured at least one team with a 7-seed or higher in 8 of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. 
• Five consecutive NCAA Champions have been a 1-seed. 

Using Vegas Odds and Lines 

Trends can be great, but Vegas odds and lines can be more predictive, as they are looking at future matchups. The best way to utilize these lines is by looking for potential upsets by finding closer spreads in comparison in the 3/14, 4/13, 5/12, 6/11 and 7/10 matchups. 

A few that stand out to me; Charleston +5 vs. SD State, Oral Roberts +6.5 vs. Duke, Penn State +2.5 vs. Texas A&M, USC +2 vs. Michigan State, Providence +3.5 vs. Kentucky, Drake +2.5 vs. Miami and Kent State +4.5 vs. Indiana, just to name a few. 

You can also use the current betting board for the national champion as a way to ensure you aren’t going too far out of bounds with your Champion pick. Here are the current top 15 teams based on future betting odds:

Kyle’s Picks

To wrap us up, I of course have to give a few picks of my own, with a lot of influence coming from content/tools at FTN as well as some of the things I have written about above. Appreciate you guys reading along, let’s have a great March Madness! 

• Fading Alabama as my champion pick. It is a curious debate when thinking of who will be the popular pick as champion in the majority of brackets, I tend to think that with Alabama being crowned the number on overall seeds, more casual bracket builders will gravitate towards them over Houston, who are the current betting favorites. 
• Pick at least one 11-seed to advance. Over the last 10 years, 40% of tournaments have seen at least one 11 seed advance to the second round, and this goes back to my First Four trend and theory, as two of the 11 seeds to play in round one have to first go through the First Four play-in game. My current favorite is Providence as I also have them circled as a potential Round of 32 upset pick over Kansas State as well, but I will also have my eye on the First Four games.
• Kansas State loses in the round of 32. Whether it’s Providence or Kentucky, I am taking Kansas State to drop after just two games. 
• Creighton over Baylor in the second round. Creighton checks a few boxes that I have gone through in this article, and more importantly, they have a better chance to advance to the Sweet 16 than Baylor in our March Madness Simulation. I’ll take it a step further and say that I want Creighton to at least the Elite 8. 
• UCLA to the Final Four. The Bruins have the top defense efficiency ranking and also have the highest probability of any non-No. 1 seed to win the tournament.  They will be without one of their top players Jaylen Clark, but they have a more than capable replacement in Pac-12 All-Freshman Amari Bailey and it sounds like starting big man Adem Bona will return fairly quickly. The news of these injuries has spread like wildfire and if people are going to be turned off of the Bruins, there is some leverage here on an elite team led by Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. 
• Drake over Miami in Round 1. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller remain strong options for this Miami offense, but the team’s top rebounder Norchad Omier went down just 1 minute into their loss against Duke and did not return. Drake is only a 2.5-point underdog for this one. 
• Teams circled for potential upsets: Drake, Kent State, Providence, Oral Roberts, Utah State, Charleston, Furman, and Penn State.
• Texas to at least the Elite Eight. The Houston/Texas region is one with several question marks. Two top-5 seed teams could be without crucial players with Miami and Xavier missing top players. Texas fits the mold of being a squad ranking inside the top 25 in both OEF and DEF as well. Mike Randle ranks Texas fifth in his big board, while Mike Cutri has them at sixth. 
• St. Mary’s over VCU in Round 1 is a conviction play for me. You might think this is weak with St. Mary’s being a 4.5-point favorite, but the public is dying to take 12 over 5 seeds for upsets, and VCU is currently the most popular option here, so taking St. Mary’s and potentially using them for a deeper run can provide some nice leverage. 
• Purdue losing the in Round of 32. This is not a pick I will go all-in on by any means, but both Mike Randle and Mike Cutri hyped up Memphis and FAU as interesting teams to make a run at taking down Zach Edey and the Boilermakers. 
• Now that we have some data in regards to how the general public is making selections in their brackets, here are some of my top “edge” picks, where you can gain some leverage on the field:  Utah State (they are 2-point favorites here yet the majority of the public is on Missouri), Kent State, Arizona State, Florida Atlantic (I will be splitting my selections here as I also like Memphis, but the public is HEAVY on the Tigers – being selected in nearly 75% of brackets), and Furman. 

I may be adding some updates to the “my picks” section as the First Four games get played and I finalize all my brackets. Thank you all for following along, feel free to let me know where some of your favorite picks are coming from in your bracket in our Discord or on Twitter @KMurrDFS. Good luck.