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Chris Meaney
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Virginia Cavaliers.
2023-2024 Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Tony Bennett (15th season)
2022-2023 Record: 25-8 (15-5)
ATS: 12-19-2
O/U: 17-16
Projected Starters: G Reece Beekman; G Isaac McKneely; G Dante Harris; G Ryan Dunn; F Jordan Minor
Virginia won a share of the ACC regular-season title last season, their fourth in the past six years. They fell short in the ACC Championship game to Duke, after losing Ben Vander Plas to an injury in practice on March 9th. The Cavaliers will need to replace point guard Kihei Clark, putting pressure on the upside for dynamic guard Reece Beekman. Last year, Bennett delivered the highest ranked class since the incredible 2016 group, which produced the 2019 National Championship. Much is expected of sophomore Ryan Dunn, who will need to collaborate with transfers Dante Harris (Georgetown), Andrew Rohde (St. Thomas), Jordan Minor (Merrimack) and Jacob Groves (Oklahoma).
Key Player: Ryan Dunn
While lead guard Beekman will stockpile preseason accolades, Ryan Dunn will need to experience an ACC eruption this season. The 6-foot-8 forward projects as one of the finest defensive wings in the nation with a sky-high game IQ. Dunn can protect the rim from the weak side or switch onto smaller guards on the perimeter. Dunn gathered much of his offense in transition opportunities and on the offensive boards. Virginia expects that more of both this season will lead to a spike in scoring numbers and efficiency.
Projection: Last year, Virginia returned 87.8% of their minutes. This year that percentage dropped to just 34.1%. I have my doubts about Dunn, who Virginia fans project as an “automatic” first-round NBA pick. Bennett’s coaching always puts Virginia in the mix for an ACC title, especially with the struggles at North Carolina. As we saw against Furman, however, the success of this slow-paced, methodical team is always delicate. Once Vander Olas was hurt, the Cavaliers weren’t the same team. I think this group takes time to gel but should be a dangerous team late in the season.
How I’m Betting Virginia: The Cavaliers returned almost 88% of their minutes and were 12-19-2 ATS? Why would this year, with so many new faces, be any different? Virginia needs to control the pace, especially with their lack of consistent scoring the past two seasons. I will fade Virginia early ATS, expecting this team needing time to master all of Bennett’s defensive details.
