Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the Big Ten. Always competitive each season, the Big Ten has developed a reputation for early-round flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. Only Michigan State advanced past the second round last season, and No. 1 Purdue’s opening round loss to 16-seeded FDU is the greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history. With both Purdue and Michigan State opening the season ranked inside the AP top four teams, the conference again has Final Four contenders. Just eight years ago the Big Ten put two teams in the Final Four (Wisconsin, Michigan State), and 24 seasons since a Big Ten team was crowned overall champion (Michigan State, 2000).
Let’s continue with our betting preview for the Michigan Wolverines.
2023-2024 Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Juwan Howard (5th season)
2022-2023 Record: 18-16 (11-9)
ATS: 19-14-1
O/U: 19-15
Projected Starters: G Dug McDaniel; G Nimari Burnett; F Terrance Williams II; F Olivier Nkamhoua; C Tarris Reed Jr.
Things have gone downhill for Michigan very quickly. Head coach Juwan Howard guided the Wolverines to a 23-5 record and Big Ten regular season championship in just his second full season at Michigan. The Wolverines then won three straight NCAA Tournament games before losing to UCLA by just two points, narrowly missing out on a Final Four. Since then, Michigan has won fewer games each of the past two seasons and failed to even make the NCAA Tournament last year. If they can’t make the NCAA Tournament with a two-time first-team All Big Ten player, and two players selected inside the top-15 of the NBA draft, why would this season be any better? Howard brought in three highly coveted transfers and hopes that guard Jaelin Llewellyn is fully recovered from a torn ACL. The Wolverines also need growth and development from role players on last year’s team.
Key Player: Jace Howard
As a team captain for the upcoming CBB season, Jace Howard will be thrown to the Big Ten wolves this season. The 6-foot-8 wing will absorb every opportunity for the Wolverines after losing two NBA Draft picks and Hunter Dickinson from last year’s underachieving roster. Jace Howard can shoot the ball from deep and, as expected, owns a high basketball IQ. He needs to be a solid contributor off the bench for a Wolverines team desperate for offense.
Projection: I was always skeptical of Howard’s quick success at Michigan. Building a winning program of sustained success is challenging, and usually those obstacles come early in a head coaches’ tenure. I struggle to be optimistic about the Wolverines season when they were such a disappointment last year with much more talent. Michigan fans are touting Tennessee transfer Olivier Nkamhoua as some “untapped scorer,” when he averaged 6.5 PPG over his four years with the Volunteers. Howard will also need Dug McDaniel to take a huge step forward until Llewellyn is fully healthy. I am very bearish on Michigan and think this year could start rumblings from the boosters against Howard.
How I’m Betting Michigan: Can we just fast-forward to Nov. 7? Michigan opens their season against a UNC-Asheville team that won the Big South regular season and tournament title last year, and now is the preseason conference favorite with four returning starters. KenPom has Michigan as a 12-point favorite, which I will grab immediately as soon as it’s available. The Wolverines were carried late in the season by the sheer talent of Dickinson, Jett Howard, and Kobe Bufkin. They covered seven of their last eight games ATS, which masked their struggles all season. They have ranked 320th or worse in defensive turnover percentage in each of Howard’s four seasons. That was fine when they could rebound and rostered elite individual scorers. They have neither of those now, unless 6-foot-10 sophomore Tarris Reed Jr. takes a huge step forward. Unless Nkamhoua becomes what Michigan fans truly hope, this team is a massive fade for me all season long.
