Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The college basketball season is less than three weeks away, and here at FTN Bets we have you covered for what promises to be another thrilling year of upsets and incredible finishes. I will be taking you around the country with a betting preview of the major conferences. I recap the betting trends from last season, list projected starters, preview the season, identify a key player, and reveal how I’m backing or fading each team.
Let’s continue our preview with the ACC. Always competitive each season, the ACC is regularly among the nation’s top conferences with annual Final Four contenders Duke, Virginia and North Carolina. Last season, Miami made their first ever Final Four, guided by the March magic of head coach Jim Larrañaga. There are 15 teams in the ACC, making it the largest of all the power conferences. The critics continue to cite the weakness of the bottom ACC teams, which directly contributes to its sixth overall preseason ranking by KenPom. However, it still holds true that the top teams in the ACC will always have a chance at a Final Four run.
Let’s continue with our betting preview with the Florida State Seminoles.
2023-2024 Florida State Seminoles
Conference: ACC
Head Coach: Leonard Hamilton (22nd season)
2022-2023 Record: 9-23 (7-13)
ATS: 13-19
O/U: 17-14-1
Projected Starters: G Jalen Warley; G Darin Green Jr.; F Jamir Watkins; F Baba Miller; C Jaylan Gainey
The great Leonard Hamilton turned 75 years young in August, and has been the foundation of Florida State basketball for almost a quarter of a century. Every season the Seminoles have length, athleticism and depth. Last year’s team featured a roster that consisted of nine sophomores and freshmen, and it showed. The Seminoles nine total victories were the fewest of any season under Hamilton. Florida State was decimated by injuries and started the season 1-8 in the nonconference portion of the schedule. Gone are two of Hamilton’s three top scorers, but all Hamilton wants is health. The Seminoles try to wear down the opponents with relentless pressure and fresh bodies, but losing Jaylen Gainey, Cam’Ron Fletcher, De’Ante Green and Baba Miller to either injury or eligibility issues before the start of the season was too much for any coach to overcome. Hamilton has already said they will not be as quick as past teams, which means they have to bring even more energy on defense to score turnovers. Hamilton has been impressed with his offense, as the Seminoles could be one of the best shooting teams in recent memory.
Key Player: Cam’Ron Fletcher
Results for Florida State skidded off road for multiple reasons last season. Losing Cam’Ron Fletcher after just 10 games didn’t help. Fletcher can influence the game on defense, guarding across the line up. The 6-foot-6 wing can stretch the floor from deep and rebounds the ball as well as anyone in the ACC. If health holds, Fletcher will be the key piece to this Florida State team on both the offense and defensive ends (1.3 SPG) on the floor.
Projection: Florida State has been crushed by injuries each of the past two seasons, but last year was a low point for their tenure under Hamilton. The Seminoles brand is pressure defense, streaky offense, and a dangerous team in March. Since 2019, Florida State has reached two Sweet 16’s and an Elite Eight and won the ACC regular season title in 2020. There is every reason to believe this season will be much better, assuming some normal health regression. Mills has first-team All-ACC ability, while Cleveland is the reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year. Gainey is a former two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year, Green is a lights out 3P shooter (36.4%). I expect a big bounceback from the Seminoles, despite an uninspiring rank of 11th in the ACC preseason poll.
How I’m Betting Florida State: It is always dangerous to count out Leonard Hamilton, even coming off two disappointing seasons. The middle teams of the ACC are very mediocre, and there is an NCAA Tournament bid in the Seminoles range of outcomes. They need health and Baba Miller to fulfill his massive potential. This roster oozes with athleticism, but can Hamilton get the same nightly effort? I expect Florida State to start slow, especially in their opener against Kennesaw State. But as the season goes on, I expect Florida State to steadily improve, and be a live underdog in home games against the ACC’s elite. The Seminoles will also be a dangerous conference tournament team. I am rooting for Hamilton’s squad to return to the NCAA Tournament.
