2023-2024 NCAA Tournament Futures and Best Bets

With the college basketball season quickly winding down and March approaching, here are my favorite future national title winner bets. Building a futures portfolio is always fun, and sportsbooks tend to offer some exploitable spots to attack.

Of course, value is super important, and even though you may think Team X has the best shot at winning it all, the price may not be worth it, especially when you bring potential hedging into the equation. I’ve had a ton of success in this space, check out my recent track record:

2022-2023: Damn you UConn…
2021-2022: Hit Kansas 18/1 (2u)
2020-21: Hit Baylor 12/1 (2u)
2019-20: COVID – No Tournament (had open futures on Michigan State and Kansas)
2018-19: Hit Virginia 30/1 (1u)
2017-18: Hit Villanova 28/1 (1u)

For me, there are three main “boxes” a team must check in order for them to have a chance to win six straight games in March and cut down the nets:

Elite Guard Play: I don’t care how dominant a team is throughout the course of the season, it is so hard to win six straight games in a tournament setting, and there are going to be at least 1-2 games that come down to the wire. What wins close games in college basketball? End-of-game playmaking ability from your backcourt. Take a look at previous national champion teams, and elite guards are the one thing they all have in common… see Davion Mitchell/Jared Butler, Ty Jerome/Kyle Guy, Jalen Brunson, Shabazz Napier, Tyus Jones.
Elite Defense: If you take a look back at the last 10 or so national champions, you’ll notice that almost every team finished in the top 15 of KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. The old saying “defense wins championships” holds true in college basketball, especially because any team is bound to have an off-shooting night in their six-game quest and will need to rely on solid defense to survive those draughts.
Coaching: This one may not be as crucial as the first two, since we have seen a few outliers (see Kevin Ollie). But looking at the track record of past national champions, you will find experienced veteran coaches. Coaching is more important in college basketball than almost every other sport (compared to NBA for example), as exploiting certain matchups, late-game situations and defensive schemes are extremely significant in tournament settings. The list of recent national champion coaches include many of the all-time greats…. see Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Tony Bennett, Jay Wright, Rick Pitino and John Calipari.

Favorites

Tennessee

(+1400 2 Units, Caesars Sportsbook)

Feel like I am on some sort of Tennessee future every year based on the top talent Rick Barnes continues to round out his roster with and the massive defensive potential they have year after year. The Vols sport a super-talented veteran backcourt between bulldog point guard Zakai Zeigler and Uruguayan sharpshooter Santiago Vescovi. Where Tennessee has consistently struggled over the last few years is in the consistency of their offensive production, but that has been solved in a huge way by bringing in transfer Dalton Knecht, who can score in bunches (20 ppg). A healthy Josiah Jordan James is just another piece of the cog and will anchor this defense along with other potential all-conference defensive players like Jamai Mashack and Jonas Aidoo. The question always comes down to if Barnes can finally get over that hump and win in March. The past tells us to lean “no,” but we’ve seen this curse lifted recently off many coaches like Tony Bennett and Jay Wright. This is as good a year as ever to break the curse.

Marquette

(+3000 1 Unit, Caesars)

This is another extremely strong backcourt behind arguably the best point guard in the country, Tyler Kolek, and sharpshooting Kam Jones. Marquette has returned basically everyone from a team that ran through a strong Big East, winning both the regular season title and tournament crown at MSG a season ago. Shaka Smart has done a tremendous job revitalizing his career after Texas and has the Golden Eagles playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor. With swiss-army knife Oso Ighodaro patrolling the paint and eating teams alive on the short roll, along with role players like David Joplin and Chase Ross, Marquette is a great buy at this price. They have shown they can compete with the top teams in the country, and I would trust the ball in Kolek’s hands in a tournament setting. This may also be the best price you can get them following the road blowout loss to Uconn.

Mid-Level

Michigan State

(+5000, 1 Unit, Caesars)

I will die on the hill of guards in March, and (when playing well) Sparty sports arguably the best backcourt in the nation behind sensational scoring threat Tyson Walker and one of my favorite (yet inconsistent) playmakers in the country, AJ Hoggard. Versatile forward Malik Hall has turned into a different player in February, and this version of him certainly makes Michigan State a contender after their poor start to the season. Rim protection will continue to be their Achilles’ heel, and Tom Izzo still has a lot to figure out rotation wise as the season winds down. But if guys like Walker and Jaden Akins can get hot in March, and we see the best versions of Hoggard and Hall, this Spartans team can beat anyone (and we’ve historically seen some Izzo magic in March).

Long Shots

Clemson

(+12500, 0.5 Unit, Caesars)

Here is a long-shot dart of a team that started the season on absolute fire but has run into a few tough losses in conference play that certainly has hurt their tournament resume. Clemson should find themselves safely in the tournament field but still has some work to do following the home loss to NC State. Their remaining schedule is pretty soft (will be favored in five of their last six), so they need to avoid any other bad losses. Brad Brownell has been coaching the Tigers for over 10 years, and this may be his most talented team since the 2018 Sweet 16 squad. The main reason is All-American swingman PJ Hall, who is a matchup nightmare for anyone if he can stay out of foul trouble. The Clemson backcourt is formidable as well behind steady veteran playmaker Chase Hunter and ex-Syracuse sharpshooter Joe Girard, who can get hot in a hurry. Brownell has the reputation of consistent mediocrity among the coaching ranks, but he certainly gets his teams to defend. The Tigers have shown the ability to knock off elite teams on the road this year (UNC and Alabama), so if they are clicking they can be one of the scarier 7-10 seeds come Round 2 and can make some noise. I really like this price.

Colorado

(+15000, 0.25 Unit, Draftkings Sportsbook)

Colorado’s tournament resume is continuing to look more bleak, as they continue to drop games in a down Pac-12 and have only one Quad 1 win all season. The Buffs certainly need to win out (they are capable) and maybe even beat a top-4 team in the conference tournament to be considered for a tournament bid. Yet, if they are able to sneak in, this is the most talented team Tad Boyle has ever had during his tenure at Colorado. The Buffs roll out two all-league talents in dynamo point guard KJ Simpson and stretch-four swingman Tristan Da Silva. On top of that, Colorado adds a lengthy five star freshman Cody Williams, which really unlocks their defensive ceiling. Colorado has dealt with some injuries this season that could be pointed at for inconsistency, but a fully healthy Buffalo squad is a scary concept. Boyle teams have always been disciplined and elite at protecting the paint. There’s typically always one team that comes from the play-in-games that makes some noise, and I envision Colorado being in that mix. This team is too talented and has too much winning makeup to ignore at this long-shot price.