NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
We are just six days away from Selection Sunday. The college basketball betting world has turned its attention to NCAA Tournament futures, investing in Final Four and National Championship wagers. However, most of the public will overlook a huge opportunity before March Madness begins.
Conference tournament futures.
One of my favorite resources here at FTN Bets is our conference tournament simulations. After 10,000 iterations based on current standings and our college basketball rankings that power the FTN models, we can identify betting values in each of the major conference tournaments. It is a great way to identify discrepancies with both overvalued and undervalued teams, providing opportunities to build our bankroll before the NCAA Tournament brackets are revealed Sunday, March 17.
With major conference tournament odds available, let’s take a deep dive into each of the six major conference tournaments through the lens of our conference tournament simulations.
ACC
Top Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Pittsburgh
Betting Values: Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Clemson
Our biggest edge comes from Pittsburgh, valued at +1200 on DraftKings. Our simulations give the Panthers a +892 value, third in the ACC. Pittsburgh lost at home to North Carolina, 70-57, earlier this season, but shot an anemic 5-for-17 from 3P range. Jeff Capel’s squad would be a very live underdog against the Tar Heels Friday night.
Our simulations have Wake Forest (+1180) and Clemson (+892) with the fourth- and fifth-best betting odds to win the ACC tournament. The Demon Deacons are still lurking as a good investment despite ending the season with three losses in their last four games. They own wins over Duke and Clemson, and Wake Forest currently holds the fifth spot in the ACC, which equates to a winnable quarterfinal matchup with a Pittsburgh team they crushed 91-58 Feb. 20.
While Clemson would need to find that magic in four straight contests, the Tigers fit the profile of a dangerous tournament team. The Tigers lost a one-point game at Duke (on a disputed call) and earned an impressive 80-76 outright win at North Carolina Feb. 6. Clemson also holds fantastic nonconference wins against TCU (neutral) and at Alabama, with an additional 79-70 win over the No. 4 seed, Pittsburgh. The Tigers should cruise into the semifinals with a favorite matchup against an overrated No. 3 seed in Virginia.
SEC
Top Seeds: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn
Betting Values: Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M
The best value in our SEC simulations is shocking.
The Auburn Tigers, despite having just one Quad I win all season, has the second-best odds (+283) in our simulations. This aligns with their second-best value on DraftKings (+260), but substantially above their fourth-place finish in the regular-season standings. The Tigers rank sixth in the NET, fourth in KenPom, and have the SEC’s top-ranked defense across the board.
Florida (+1589) ranks fifth in our simulations, substantially better than the +2000 value on DraftKings. The Gators are the No. 6 seed but have a 94-91 road victory at Kentucky and lost 98-93 in overtime at Alabama. Florida is one of the best major conference values on the board.
Buzz Williams’ Aggies registered with the sixth-best odds at +2310. This is significantly better than their +10000 value on DraftKings and even exceeds their seventh seed in the SEC Tournament. Texas A&M is the SEC’s best rebounding team on both ends of the floor but has severe limitations on offense. Still, the Aggies are a strong betting value with Wade Taylor (18 PPG) always a threat to provide a Kemba Walker-esque performance in conference tournament play.
Big Ten
Top Seeds: Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern
Betting Values: Wisconsin, Iowa
Wisconsin (+1316) have the fifth-best odds in our simulations, which show an edge when compared to the DraftKings number of +1500. The Badgers have struggled mightily in the second half of the season, losing eight of their last 11 games. Wisconsin still ranks first in defensive rebounding and Top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency. The Badgers have a victory over Marquette and swept Michigan State. Can they regain that magic in the Big Ten Tournament?
Northwestern (+1553) ranks behind Wisconsin in our simulation, but still beat their DraftKings odds of +1600. The Wildcats are the No. 4 seed but rank sixth on the DraftKings board. The loss of Ty Berry for the season hurts a shallow roster, but Northwestern still won five of their eight games without the senior shooting guard. The Wildcats even found a way to win without Ryan Langborg (12.4 PPG, 41.7% 3P) at Maryland. Never underestimate Northwestern, who already beat Purdue at home on December 1, and lost in overtime at Purdue Jan. 31.
The Iowa Hawkeyes also show fantastic value with their +2194 simulation odds holding a much better value than their +3500 number on DraftKings. Iowa won four of their last six contests, including road victories at Northwestern and Michigan State. The Hawkeye’s big edge is their 80.1% free-throw shooting mark in Big Ten play (first overall).
Big 12
Top Seeds: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor
Betting Values: BYU, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU
There is a ton of betting value within the middle seed of the Big 12 Tournament. We project BYU with a 6.8% chance of winning the tournament, which makes their +1500 mark a value on DraftKings. The Cougars shot over 50% of their field-goal attempts from beyond the arc, making them the perfect high-variance team to back in a tournament setting.
Texas Tech carries extremely high odds at +5000, which is very attractive for a team we give an 8% chance of winning this tournament, fourth highest in the Big 12. New head coach Grant McCasland has improved the Red Raiders offense while keeping their traditional defensive ranking inside the top 50 nationally.
Both Texas (4.6%) and TCU (3.5%) are longshots but carry value at +3000 and +5000, respectively. Texas has an extremely high range of outcomes, with the ability to win or lose against any Big 12 opponent. At their best, they are a talented, high-scoring group, led by the explosive combination of guard Max Abmas (16.8 PPG) and forward Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG). TCU is great in transition and ranks top-30 nationally in defensive turnover percentage.
Pac-12
Top Seeds: Arizona, Washington State, Colorado, Oregon
Betting Values: Colorado, UCLA
Colorado’s (+436) talent cannot be ignored, even with four losses in a five-game stretch in February. The Buffaloes have an elite offense that ranks first in free-throw shooting (77%) during conference play. Colorado is also great on the defensive boards but are still undervalued even with six straight wins to end the season. The Buffaloes are actually the second-best Pac-12 bet, having now situated themselves for a potential double-bye as the No. 3 overall seed. The Buffaloes are one of the biggest conference tournament values per our simulations and project with an 18.67% chance of winning the tournament with astounding +500 odds at DraftKings.
UCLA (+3075) only projects at a 3.2% chance of winning but have a huge delta from their +4500 mark in most books. The Bruins have the third-best defense per KenPom within conference play, but rank dead-last in 2P% (44.4%) against Pac-12 opponents. They are a lottery ticket, with a rough semifinals matchup with Arizona looming.
Big East
Top Seeds: Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s
Betting Values: Creighton, Seton Hall
Could this be the year Creighton finally gets that elusive Big East Tournament Title? The Bluejays have made the finals four times, including in consecutive years in 2021 and 2022. Creighton ranks first in 2P offense and 2P defense within the Big East, as well as first in defensive rebounding. Our simulations put Creighton at a 21.5% chance of winning at +365 odds. This is much better than the +425 mark at most sportsbooks.
Seton Hall comes in at +3500, which is a fantastic betting value compared to our +1896 mark at 5.01% chance of winning. Shaheen Holloway is a brilliant coach, and his Seton Hall Pirates gave Connecticut one of their two conference losses. The Pirates only weakness is their lack of consistent 3P shooting, but their toughness and offensive rebounding keep them in games against elite opponents, including overcoming a 19-point deficit to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden.
